Hacker News Reader

Comment by dataengineer56 | Hacker News Reader

Scotland wouldn't meet the criteria to join the EU - it's far too poor and small by itself. Exiting the UK would just isolate them more.

View on HN

That isnt correct, perhaps "poor" might be a problem depending on what dept Scotland would have after independence, but definetly not small.

Joining criteria are (https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-p...):

* stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

* a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;

* the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

> stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

How could it be judged that institutions are stable immediately after independence? There'd be a ton of new ones that would need to be set up.

They've had those things as the country of Scotland under the UK, so I'd assume you could argue that they qualify with that.

How? There is a well established separate court system in Scotland so I think that part would be fine. But pretty much every other part of government would have to be built from scratch. A foreign office, a home office, immigration, passport office, etc. etc. etc.

Most of these are institutions are based physically in rUK so it’s not like they can be “split”

Sure, they'd have to build up new offices and staff them with people. But they have a parliament and they have elections, right?

Ireland has a population of 5 million, Scotland 5.5 million.

The formal criteria are that a country is a stable market democracy, other than that accession is really a political matter (see Ukraine and Turkey). Clearly there would be a groundswell of support for incorporating a Scotland fleeing from Brexitland. It would be a coup for the EU.

Spain won't like a "breakaway province" joining the EU - they hate self determination for places like Catalonia and Gibraltar.

Sure, but that is politics. Given the overwhelming view of the EU will be to admit Scotland, there would likely be a quid pro quo. Spain would drive its bargaining position to extract concessions from the rest of the union in exchange for its consent.

In 2021, Scotland's GDP per capita was estimated[0] to be about £30,000, or around €35,000 euros. This is hardly poor--even if economic output fell by half on independence, Scotland would still have a higher nominal GDP per capita than many EU members (such as Poland, Romania, and the Baltic States)[1]. I don't know how much independence would affect the economy, but a 50% decrease seems quite harsh.

Its population of around 5 million is comparable to other small EU member states such as Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, and Croatia[2].

[0] - https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publ...

[1] - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_08_10/def...

[2] - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001/defa...

There are 9 EU countries that have less people than Scotland.

I expect some European countries like Spain to firmly oppose them joining the European Union, to send a message to inner regions that may also want independence.

This idea that Scotland is going to vote for independence from the UK and straight into Europe is far fetched.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com