Those who bought homes 2-3 years ago when 30 year fixed mortgage rates dipped below 3% have already seen their values go up like 30-40%. There is no reason to expect it to crash by that much in the next few years, if ever.
FL fell 60% in the 2000s, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 40% this time around
While there are likely supply constraints at the margins, the house price gains have been a result of the amount you can borrow at a certain monthly payment being abnormally high.
Was there a reason to expect it to happen in the first place? Aside from ex post facto reasoning?
Housing is a tough market to crash because people need to live somewhere, so if prices fall people just avoid moving, and liquidity drops. For prices to fall substantially requires that people express a liquidity preference -- they'd rather have the money, even discounted, then keep the house. And the primary way that happens is that people can no longer afford to service their mortgages.
This doesn't happen easily, but when it happens, things can break very dramatically.