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Comment by epistasis | Hacker News Reader

This is great but I also wish that Toyota would start shipping a lot more EVs. They have been far behind the trend and made some poor bets on the future of technology. I fear that the poor renewable resources available to Japan, compared to most nations, has colored their judgement when it comes to the global market.

I would love an EV Sienna, for example. Really hate that moment of filling up with gas with my kids in the car, the cognitive dissonance of fucking over their future in such direct sight is painful.

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They and the other Japanese manufacturers have been actually actively fighting this trend. Outside of California where they were required to do stuff by law that is. They're heavily invested in ICE and have been pushing FUD on this topic and marketing dead-end stuff like hydrogen fuel cells as alternative but primarily just to avoid doing anything. They're starting to pivot now, but's pretty late. Toyota/Subaru have brought out some meh EVs now that will only sell because of brand loyalty.

It's a shame because they had a head-start with the hybrid drivetrain concept, but seemed to just want to stop there. And honestly GM's "Voltec" drivetrain was better than anything that came out of Toyota or Honda (too bad it's dead).

I drove around Vermont in my friend's PHEV Rav4 this past winter... and it's... ok. But my Volt is the better machine.

I think non-tesla vehicles are going to struggle in selling in the US in the kind of volume that makes sense for Toyota until they have a decent charging infrastructure.

I think they will struggle but not for the reasons you give. Manufacturers will continue to sell 100% of their inventory. Demand is not the problem. There are no major EV lines for which there is adequate inventory, from any manufacturer.

The problem is supply, and supply-chain. Specifically batteries. And in this case the supply curve is relatively inelastic because getting battery manufacturing online at the required rates just isn't going to happen in time.

Only Tesla has really properly invested in this.

Governments wasted their time giving consumer EV subsidies when what they should have been doing is providing battery manufacturing subsidies.

Yeah, post 2020, that's another problem. If it's hard to get batteries, I'm sure Toyota would rather build 4 PHEVs than one EV.

But, rewind to 2019 when supply chain was not an issue and non-Tesla EV sales were still really bad. The Model 3 was selling an order of magnitude better than the top non-Tesla EV, the Bolt.

Except the Bolt still all sold all of its inventory. They just didn't make many of them.

FWIW I was shopping for one back there in Ontario (when we still had EV subsidies). I ended up getting a Volt because the Bolt was unobtainium even at the EV-friendly dealer I was shopping at. 8 month wait at least.

I hadn’t heard the Voltec is better? Do you have a recommended reading on Voltec vs Toyota drivetrain? Im

They’ll build a hydrogen car (only available in select markets) but can’t make the Sienna plug-in.

I've seen one Mirai in Palo Alto. It exists!!!

What's wrong with Toyota's hybrids and plug-in hybrids? Up-front cost?

Sienna EV or plug in hybrid doesn't exist.

The prius prime and Rav4 prime are excellent, affordable vehicles. I only burn gasoline when driving across the country (and I can do my usual 12 hour drive with one 10 gallon refill)

They are an old, lethargic company. They won't do anything truly innovative until they cut the fat and get agile. I interviewed with Woven Planet, their automated driving division and it was a complete joke. They focused more on creating motivational videos and designing fancy offices than on solving problems.

They don't even need to innovate, just copy the path laid out to them. They can already make the batteries, apparently, let's just put them in cars and let me stop putting a pound of CO2 into the atmosphere for every mile I drive.

Even better would be able to live in a place that let me have a family without a car, because there was adequate transit. And though I'm working hard on that locally, it will take time, if it ever succeeds. And most parts of the country will never even attempt that :(

That depends on the country. Even in USA, there are plenty of places with great transportation for those willing to live the talk.

Meh- in most cases it is more sustainable to live elsewhere (climate, water, ...). Esp. when remote work is a possibility

> stop putting a pound of CO2 into the atmosphere for every mile I drive

Private transportation is largely unsustainable anyways.

They are by-far the most fuel efficient hybrid on the market in Europe at least. The fuel economy for city usage (40-50km/h) is far below other hybrids (not talking about plug-in hybrid here).

Did they practice TPS/lean? Or was it more of a startup disconnected from Toyota culture?

EVs are not going to prevent fucking over the future. There is no good future where we continue to produce 70 million new cars per year.

That's true, but the short-term choice is mainly between 70MM ICE cars vs 70MM EVs, because car-dependent urban sprawl has already been built, and people living there are very strongly opposed to even smallest changes in urbanization.

And iPhones. And avocados. And pistachios. And, And, And...

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