> what concrete value comes from assigning fairly arbitrary effort estimates in this fashion?
This sounds counter-intuitive, but I’ve found in many teams the value of story pointing is to instigate healthy conversations about requirements and surface assumptions in a team that might be reticent to engage in those kinds of conversations naturally. The actual point values are probably the least important outcome - any inaccuracies tend to average out over time anyway.
I’ve gone in to many teams in my career where “planning” amounts to 1-liner tickets describing a month’s worth of work, and the team has a few dozen of these in the backlog. Conversations about what is actually involved in delivery don’t happen, and execution is chaotic because everyone has a different understanding about what we’re building.
This sounds like a dysfunctional team because it is. A surprising number of teams are dysfunctional, and many of these frameworks and tools come out of attempts to solve for dysfunction.
In these teams trust and morale tends to be low. The abstraction of story points (and associating them with complexity, not time) opens the door to having conversations about what the work actually is rather than how long everyone will take to do it.
It’s a lot easier to hear “why do you think this is a 5-pointer instead of a 3-pointer” instead of “why do you think this will take 5 weeks, I think it should only take 3.”
Scrum isn’t a universally-applicable tool, and introducing story points without also leveraging their ability to stimulate conversations about the work is a waste of time, but applied well they can help break through to teams that aren’t ready (or don’t have the muscle memory,) to have these conversations without some kind of trigger.