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> They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to.

China doesn't have to fight. They could just accept that the ROC/Taiwan is an independent country (which of course it is whether China accepts it or not). China has no obligation to start a war of conquest.

it would be true if countries are really "independent". What China sees is the first island chain made by the US. China sees "China Containment".

Once again, China doesn’t have to fight.

Taiwan is critical to China on all levels.

1) politicians see unifying China as their life goal for historical reasons, from Republic of China to People's Republic of China, it is something colonizers do not understand. I don't understand why people paying a high price to buy some old artifacts stolen from China back, but apparently for something, it is about pride. I believe the government would fall if they declare no interests on Taiwan.

2) strategically, Taiwan's location is important, having a foreign power influenced island (especially the US), is a lock on Chinese Navy, that's why it is called the first islands chain. China has to go beyond to protect its trade and energy routes.

Given the fact that US is all about containing China now, there will have to be a lot power play in Asia now, which is to US's advantage, since US is far, and China will suffer more from the war (trade routes and so on). I don't know how this will play out.

I understand the historical/military circumstance. None of that changes that China does _not_ have to fight.

And the US doesn't have to isolate China or send warships to the SCS. The US didn't have to give Tsingdao to the Japanese, which directly triggered protests that led to the birth of the CPC. The KMT didn't have to be so corrupt that the majority population sided with CPC which led to KMT fleeing to Taiwan.

And yet, those ships have sailed. We aren't in this mess just because China is supposedly a bad guy, there are real relevant historical reasons why things are the way they are, and they can't be swept under a rug.

> We aren't in this mess just because China is supposedly a bad guy, there are real relevant historical reasons why things are the way they are, and they can't be swept under a rug.

If China attacks Taiwan, it is absolutely because of China. It would, after all, but their own choice to engage in such a war of aggression.

Okay. But wait a minute, why are you staying silent on the fact that the US is trying to contain China? Let's say China puts missles in Cuba similar to what happened during the Cuban missle crisis, and the US attacks either China or Cuba as a result. Would you then also wholly blame the US for "its own choice to engage in such a war of aggression"?

> Okay. But wait a minute, why are you staying silent on the fact that the US is trying to contain China?

Because that doesn't change the fact that a war against Taiwan would be a war of choice?

> Let's say China puts missles in Cuba similar to what happened during the Cuban missle crisis, and the US attacks either China or Cuba as a result. Would you then also wholly blame the US for "its own choice to engage in such a war of aggression"?

This is an odd comparison given that the US stopped Taiwan from developing nuclear weapons thus preventing a similar situation as the Cuban missle crisis in Taiwan. If that's your point, then China should _thank_ the US for its actions preventing Taiwanese nuclear "aggression" (I put it in quotes, since really they were developing it to prevent invasion so calling it "aggression" is kind of ridiculous, but I digress...). Besides, the US _removed_ its troops from Taiwan decades ago so the US threat in Taiwan has really decreased if anything.

So yeah none of those points really change the fact that China does not need to invade Taiwan and that it would wholly be war of choice. China could just continue to live with an independent Taiwan as it has for more than 70 years. That is if it chooses not to start a war of its on volition.

> it's also possibly the most emotional one for the Chinese. Large portions of the population support reunification

Some of us have difficulties in understanding the mindset: if some population wants one system, and is unavailable to be part of a different system (they would have moved, would not they), how do those "reunification supporters" on the other side believe, psychologically, that a system change is imaginable? They believe that coercion can be an effective solution? That "the others will adapt"? If so, that the new configuration will be stable (like a model of energy states)? It does not sound sound, in these ways - it may sound like "early stopping" in thoughts.

Reunification means that both side recognize that they're Chinese. Things like systems or ideology are not that important and can be worked out. They could have different governments. In fact a federation solution was proposed (and rejected) in the 80s.

Furthermore, the Chinese sense of history is much longer. There are many examples in Chinese history in which some territory splitted off and then reunified later. So things like "the configuration won't be stable" wouldn't be Chinese thinking. To the Chinese, splitting off is the unstable configuration.

Given how the current Taiwan situation came to be, many Chinese view the Taiwan government as relatives with whom they've had a fight, and whom — after losing — bunkered down in the basement. The basement is still part of the house. They're still part of the family, so let's not be too cruel to them and seek peace. But if they no longer claim to be part of the family, then kick them out.

> that both side recognize that they're Chinese [...] But if they no longer claim to be part of the family

Don't they all consider themselves Han people? How do they configure their identity? Their ethnic and historical ties do not appear to be severable.

Younger taiwanese people think of themselves less and less "chinese" or "han" or whatever label we would like to use

> China prefers peaceful reunification.

The people of Taiwan, just like those of Ukraine do not want to be re-absorbed.

> Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible.

It already is impossible. I think the world, save Beijing is moving on.

There is little support for reunification in Taiwan and it gets smaller by the day based on China's actions in HK and in the area near Taiwan. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/w...

Peaceful reunification is not possible after China showed that one country two systems will not be tolerated anymore.

For many chinese people this is such an emotional issue because the chinese government has been very keen in promoting these emotions. They let go Mongolia and no one is still crying about that. The communist party could at least let off some steam on the issue if they wanted to...but they don't