I would even if it offered 50+% of getting killed. The small chance you strike a billion is worth the risk.
- Right now we spend 33% of our life working, nd the stress of work impacts another 33%.
- A billion is also way more than out life expected income, but there's a big marginal reduction of value to money. But you also get it now when you're younger rather than parsing it out.
- As a random 25 year old male, you would only have a 1 in 16 chance of surviving to retirement age at 60 on your own.
I personally would only take the deal for 2.5% chance of death though.
The only reason I can fathom desiring a billion dollars is the leverage it would give me to influence the world in what I think is a positive direction. But when it comes to money for my own sake, $10M is about the most I can imagine having use for.
In all the worlds where you get the money, your life is improved. In all the worlds where you don't, well, you're dead, so you don't really care.
Obviously, this doesn't take into account the impacts to everyone else in the worlds where you died.
What would make a difference would be my life situation - if it would be worse or totally shitty I could take even 25% for a billion.
That was kind of theme of "Squid Games".
At some point it goes from a life changing amount of money to just "meh" money.
Your sum risk might be reduced (e.g. your job pays health insurance), but many jobs increase your risk e.g. just driving to work is dangerous.
Of course your primary finite resource is usually time (years of life), and your object function usually relates to quality of life (not $) . . . Win $ for risk of death is a poor metric.