This piece gives a run down of all the analysts claims, with some calculating a $50 profit instead but as you can imagine none of it is substantiated.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-20114722-93/amazon-kindle-f...
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-20114722-93/amazon-kindle-f...
In other words, no-one really knows, but it looks like they're probably closer to breaking even than chugger claims. Chugger is taking the worst-case estimate here, and also the one that seems the most unsubstantiated.
Thanks for the link.