Wow I didn't realize the ruble has been strengthening despite the sanctions, but it is true.[1]
The rate is essentially fictional - you theoretical seller, cannot get that rate. [1]
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-rouble-rebo...
If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls - the Ruble would not be doing well.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/business/russia-economy-r...
That's ~15% of the economy.
Russia itself is predicting that the unemployment rate will double to 9%. That's about the highest unemployment has gone in Western countries at the absolute peak of recessions.
The idea that the Russian economy is doing well or better than pre-war is absurd.
There's more to an economy than the value of your currency which governments and central banks have a lot of power to easily manipulate.
It also helps that imports are also way down (due to sanctions/boycotts) but exports are slightly up (due to increased oil prices).
Since then there was even more recovery. Interest rates while spiked briefly to 20% now lowered.
There was a brief capital control but now it's not neccessary: ordinary Russians can withdraw their dollars and even send them abroad (up to $50000 per month).
You don't need any kind of special financial magic when you've got billions from gas.
Most believe that SWIFT was cut for Russian banks (most are working fine). That you can't buy USD in Russia (it's absolutely available both in banks and on the street, actually there's overabundance of hard currency due to gas and oil prices).
Yes, McDonald's took down its logo. But it's already opening under new name with same operations and franchise intact.
Yes, no official iPhones. So what, ruble is so strong now it's hard to feel a thing, you can get them via Kazakhstan or Dubai.
Americans bought Biden's "crushing sanctions" rhethoric and cheap pledges of "support" to Ukraine and looked the other way.
Ability to produce advanced microchips, high end machinery etc on the other hand is. When the existing stock (all bought from the West) is depleted / wears down Russia might start to really feel the sanctions. This has a chance of permanently damaging Russia.
If however over the time Russia can manage to restart the ability to manufacture those things (possibly by banding with non Western world initially) then yes - it could then show middle finger to the West and get on with its business.
Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP.
This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go.
North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.
Most bought Bloomberg propaganda and were expecting a crash. It never came. On the other hand Moscow feels great, restaurants are packed and most of people I know are back to their consumerist habits (sans some Western clothing brands).
Russian consumer exhaled and watches Ukrainian war like a soap opera on Telegram that they discuss with coworkers or on Patriarchy Ponds.
Nobody will learn a lesson.