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Comment by lotusmars | Hacker News Reader

Putin already hinted that in exchange of lifting sanctions he will ship grain from occupied Ukraine. I'm pretty sure that Western politicans will scream "no way" initially but will quietly give in later. Just they way they gave in to Putin's demands to pay for gas in rubles.

Whole rush on occopying south Ukraine (and levelling cities like Mariupol) was for Putin to have grains shortage as yet another leverage on European politicians.

Not to mention that sanctions hadn't made any significant dent anyway. Russian economy is booming unfortunately. Yes import is limited, but local prices cratered due to strong ruble. It's around 60-70 RUB per USD both in banks and on the street compared to 78 pre-war.

These sanctions are a shame while Germans are sponsoring war by pumping billions into Russian economy and drag their feet on promised weapons to Ukraine.

So much blood on Germans once again. Only last time they were explicit about it.

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Wow I didn't realize the ruble has been strengthening despite the sanctions, but it is true.[1]

1: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

The Russian government has extremely limited avenues to trade Rubles publicly, and exercises dictatorial control over those within its borders who attempt to do so.

The rate is essentially fictional - you theoretical seller, cannot get that rate. [1]

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-rouble-rebo...

That article is really outdated (from before Russia forced payment in rubles), many capital controls were lifted, foreign exchange is allowed up to a limit. I've seen people still making the claim but much more of the opposite. A lot of people on Bloomberg have contradicted precisely this on air. Most of the evidence in the two month old article is anecdotal and unsourced anyway.

They have an 18.5% interest rate compared to 0% in EU, and compared to ~5% in Russia pre-war.

If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls - the Ruble would not be doing well.

11%. Slashed three days ago from 14%. It will be back to single-digits pretty soon.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/business/russia-economy-r...

We'll see how that goes when their oil exports drop from 7.8M to 4.3M - and their natural gas exports decline similarly.

That's ~15% of the economy.

Russia itself is predicting that the unemployment rate will double to 9%. That's about the highest unemployment has gone in Western countries at the absolute peak of recessions.

The idea that the Russian economy is doing well or better than pre-war is absurd.

There's more to an economy than the value of your currency which governments and central banks have a lot of power to easily manipulate.

>If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls

It also helps that imports are also way down (due to sanctions/boycotts) but exports are slightly up (due to increased oil prices).

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how...

Important to note that this article is alread almost two months old.

Since then there was even more recovery. Interest rates while spiked briefly to 20% now lowered.

There was a brief capital control but now it's not neccessary: ordinary Russians can withdraw their dollars and even send them abroad (up to $50000 per month).

You don't need any kind of special financial magic when you've got billions from gas.

I was shocked to learn that most Westerners (especially Americans) believe that sanctions actually worked.

Most believe that SWIFT was cut for Russian banks (most are working fine). That you can't buy USD in Russia (it's absolutely available both in banks and on the street, actually there's overabundance of hard currency due to gas and oil prices).

Yes, McDonald's took down its logo. But it's already opening under new name with same operations and franchise intact.

Yes, no official iPhones. So what, ruble is so strong now it's hard to feel a thing, you can get them via Kazakhstan or Dubai.

Americans bought Biden's "crushing sanctions" rhethoric and cheap pledges of "support" to Ukraine and looked the other way.

McDonald's and iPhones and other branded crap are not strategic. Who really gives a fuck about their existence. Russians could always get cheaper Android phone from China and do just fine. They would not loose their sleep over McBurger being replaced with something else either.

Ability to produce advanced microchips, high end machinery etc on the other hand is. When the existing stock (all bought from the West) is depleted / wears down Russia might start to really feel the sanctions. This has a chance of permanently damaging Russia.

If however over the time Russia can manage to restart the ability to manufacture those things (possibly by banding with non Western world initially) then yes - it could then show middle finger to the West and get on with its business.

Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy.

Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP.

This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go.

North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.

Try to board a plane to Moscow then?

Actually a lot of Moscow tech workers came back after fleeing initialy to Yerevan, Tbilisi, Baku and Istanbul.

Most bought Bloomberg propaganda and were expecting a crash. It never came. On the other hand Moscow feels great, restaurants are packed and most of people I know are back to their consumerist habits (sans some Western clothing brands).

Russian consumer exhaled and watches Ukrainian war like a soap opera on Telegram that they discuss with coworkers or on Patriarchy Ponds.

Nobody will learn a lesson.

I don't understand, please read the comment, do not just press "next 100 words" on a Markov chain.

I don't know what reply did you expect me to give to "try to board a plane to Moscow then".

Which part is confusing, it made sense to me

Comments like this are incredibly useful. A simple statement, backed up by a link with graph that verifies it. I’m not being sarcastic, I know it kind of reads that way. Comments like this teach me more about the world than 1,000 word rambling news articles.

> Whole rush on occopying south Ukraine (and levelling cities like Mariupol) was for Putin to have grains shortage as yet another leverage on European politicians.

This is an insane oversimplificaiton. There are many reasons the south is strategic, not least of which is that it's not only coastal but contains major port cities. That allows for both the strangling Ukraine, the securing of supply to Russia and the domination of the local sea, including complete control of the Sea of Azov. It also forms a land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas, which is critical for supplying and reinforcing Crimea. Then of course it was also useful in order to restore fresh water supply to Crimea, which Ukraine had cut off. It also buffers the Volgograd gap which Russia considers critical for their security. Don't forget all the other natural resources and industry that the area is rich in. Then of course, one of the best reasons which might be too obvious to even notice: It's the closest to Russia! They can accomplish their undermining of Ukraine without going as far as they would have to otherwise or having Belarus intermediate. Don't forget that the defeat of actual neo-Nazis in Mariupul (That was always Azov Battalion's stronghold.) was probably seen as a big propaganda win at home too.

No need to give in, if they can just tell him his whole Black Sea fleet will be immediately sunk if he tries to stop any ship with grain from Ukrainian ports. Putin only understands such language, nothing else. Let's say Ukraine will get at least 20-50 Harpoons and NSMs with option to resupply. Putin will immediately shut up about the blockade because his ships won't have anywhere to hide. Problem solved.

> Not to mention that sanctions hadn't made any significant dent anyway. Russian economy is booming unfortunately.

This is false. Sanctions are biting Putin clearly strong enough if he is using blackmailing with famine for their lifting. If anything, sanctions have to become stronger. Oil and gas trade with Russia has to be banned, since it's the main source of funding the war for Putin.

I dunno. Mariupol doesn't look that flattened to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1I8SZeXGFo

Plese don't spread Russian propaganda. Graham Philips worked a token "pro-Putin Westerner" on RT and Zvezda, which is literally Russian army's TV channel. He's as shilly as it gets.

All that's available form "official" sources is propaganda; might as well look at both sides. There's not likely to be any truth there, but one may have more hope of discerning truth by looking at things, than by refusing to do so.

This in itself is Kremlin's propaganda 101.

Kremlin's most effective propagandist media and influencers are never as blunt as "Putin is good".

It's more like "we never know the truth". "One side says that, another says that", "we don't know who's credible". "Truth is somewhere in the middle". "Politicians are dirty everywhere". "Everything is propaganda".

It's effectively the leutmotif of Russian media that aims to disorient and pacify domestic audience and they use it a lot on Western audience as well.

A great example was their media strategy on MH17 downing.

First they made sure their network of influencers spat out dozens of theories, no matter how contradicting or bizarre they are. "The plane was already filled with corpses". "Ukrainian jet fighter shot it down" (look up their military briefing on it, it's absolutely hilarious with disproportionally huge fake jet fighter pasted on a satellite image). "Spanish dispatcher saw it". "Ukrainian Buk shot it down". "There was no plane".

Afterwards give airtime to all the theories by saying "we're not claiming it's truth, but sources say this". Make your head spin, make you doubt everything. With such overload you have no other option but to just tune out, turn it off. There is no truth. Any voice is propaganda.

Peter Pomerantes had a great book "This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality"[1] on their tactics, a recommended read.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/This-Not-Propaganda-Adventures-Agains...

If you don't know that everything is propaganda, I think you're rather naive (and must have missed the first half of the war somehow.) Nobody's "informing" you out of the goodness of their heart. Capitalists and states own media because it benefits their interests and will tell you whatever is profitable for them.[1]

You're still not addressing the fact that large portions of the city are still standing, as shown in the propagandists video. Trust me, I saw the large portions that were destroyed by Russia which in my view is terrorism and very sad, but you don't lend yourself any credibility bitching about the truth not being in the middle when it clearly is in this particular case.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_model

> You're still not addressing the fact that large portions of the city are still standing.

Thank you Putin for leaving some parts of bombed cities intact!

Thank you Putin and his army for not murdering all families in gas chambers, only selectively raping women, executing men and looting their houses!

Such a low bar to clear.

This is moving the goal post and dismissive. The point is that the view many have been presented is actually biased. As I said, we do not make ourselves credible and build trust by lying and diverting attention.

Yeah, I guess all those ethnic Russians that live in Mariupol are all payed actors. And those concrete buildings that are all in actuality flattened. Elaborate actors, the whole lot.

Yep, saying this as a Russian, Russian media will show you a small part of the city with a staged crowd carrying Russian flags and tell you it's the whole city.

They've done it for years. It's a shame some people in the West are fooled by these cynical lies.

For others reading it, just google areal videos of Mariupol from The Guardian or BBC. It's shocking how West allowed this to happen in 21st century.

What's a shame is that people are so distrustful of the news and government here that they think that anything that says the opposite of what they hear from those sources must be the actual truth.

RT was actually grown by Kremlin as a brand that "tells truth your government wants to hide". Conspriacy theories and Oliver Stone interviews interspersed with footage of Kremlin-backed European extremists protesting and pepper-sprayed.

Thank God, they lacked subtlety and were not suave enough to build this vision. Now they're taking a second shot at it by spinning off its reporters and affilates as "independent bloggers"

Also Kremlin's psyops campaigns on social media are never as explicit as "Putin good". They're more like "while Russia is doing bad things in Ukraine, I am an American and I am ashamed of Iraq/treatment of black people/Arab Springs/NATO enlargement". The person writing sits in St. Petersburg suburbs, is paid $600 per month and takes a shuttle bus to his depressive town every night. But it's enough to spark a thread on Reddit.

It is a shame. It's some kind of good guy fallacy. Sometimes there just isn't one and everyone is lying to you about everything.

Easily. I wouldn't put it past Putin to bus in the crowd from Russia just for this specific occasion. They've been doing it for years, why not again?

Just like they film Putin's meetups with "factory workers" or "wounded soldiers". If you follow the news for long enough, the faces of those "soldiers", "workers", and "miners" start repeating.

Absolutely.

They've been doing it a lot pre-war. When protests erupted and were crushed in Moscow and in major Russian cities Putin's media scrambled to show that "regular hard working people oppose gay rich Muscovite hipsters who sold their country".

A hilarious example was when they even staged a "worker" from Uralvagonzavod (a major tank factory) before Putin who promised to "gather guys and show them"[1]. Of course PR director for the factory was a famous Putin's media manager Alexey Zharich.

They staged tons of provocations at protests to film it and show on repeat on TV.

RT and Russian state media used the same tactics after 2014 occupation.

While staged and fake this propaganda works if you show it 24/7 on TV. We were shoved it down our throats for years and now they feed it to the West.

[1] https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/49031/

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