This sounds a bit like doom and gloom. While I don't disagree, it is important to look at AMZN after the dot com bubble burst. Traders fled, but people who believed in the company did very well.
Yep, I did well, and I loved to show people AMZN stock price graph, like “can you identify the dot-com crash here?”. But I believed in the company then. Big question is: should I believe in the AMZN now?
Personally, I’ve stopped using Amazon when they started to support censorship - I’ve grown up in a totalitarian country and things likes censorship are revolting to me. I never suffered after leaving Amazon using Walmart for goods delivery and B&N for books. So Amazon is not unique and irreplaceable anymore.
So, let’s ask people who continue to use Amazon - how the company is doing these days? Do you think it will go on growing?
The best option I see following a similar path is TSLA. They currently have 2% of us auto sales. The energy business is tiny, AI/FSD is controversial, but if it works it will be worth a lot.
P/E is 40 currently. Historically very large companies have had P/E between 4-30. So the question is what is Tesla's earnings in 2030 and what will average P/E be across all large companies.
AWS, in my not-quite-amateur opinion, will remain dominant in the industry. The best IAM of the big three, incredible availability and they aren't undercut on price by their kitchen sink adversaries.
Azure has Office and AD integrations, GCP has some ML advantages. But AWS is strong long term. They're peak IBM.
Also, there were a lot of other companies that people believed in that didn't fare so well.
You are being very optimistic to assume your pick is the one to not only survive but thrive.