CDOs did not blow up the housing market. The housing market blew up the CDO market.
In 2007, people said the exact same thing, and by every single metric the housing market is far more extended than it was then.
CDOs did not blow up the housing market. The housing market blew up the CDO market.
In 2007, people said the exact same thing, and by every single metric the housing market is far more extended than it was then.
The two were indistinguishable (CDOs == buckets of over-leveraged mortgages), so I'm not sure what your point is here. No one really knew/cared what was in those CDOs, so people were trading them at face value. I don't think recent home owners are even remotely as leveraged as they were in 2008, so we're not risking a cascading blow-up effect.
House prices went up because of QE + high demand. QT will decrease demand at such high prices, and thus lower prices; we're already seeing this happen due to interest rate hikes. Undoubtedly we'll see some foreclosures, but I don't think it will be a bloodbath.
Both statements are correct because there was a feedback loop.
The consequences of the 2008 financial crisis reverberated for over a decade, and then COVID-19 pandemic arose and the government decided that it wasn't going to make the "same mistake" again and started bailing out everyone. However, they overshot, misallocated funds, caused runaway inflation, then failed to recognize the persistent inflation and acted too late to curb it. That brings us to today, where there is ongoing speculation about whether this will be a "soft landing" or a "hard landing." If history is any guide, then I think that this kind of market situation this means we can expect another spectacular crash in the near future. The consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent rescue operation were still unresolved when the pandemic began, because the Fed had not figured out how to unwind its bloated balance sheet from all those years of Quantitative Easing. Just when the Fed thought it would start unwinding, the pandemic hit, and the Fed balance sheet grew astronomically. Now, for the first time in decades, the Fed is facing the runaway inflation that "common sense" would have predicted, and they have no choice but to initiate a "rug pull" on the economy in order to bring inflation under control. This will only end when the US consumer is bruised badly enough to reduce consumption, which will put the economy into a tailspin which will cause massive wealth destruction for investors. It's hard to see how the Fed can keep kicking this can down the road. Somewhere along the way there will be a black swan event. Perhaps Russia will choose to escalate cyber, kinetic and/or economic warfare against NATO at the very moment that a US market crash is occurring.
I sincerely hope that I'm wrong, but my Spidey Sense is tingling like it's 2001 or 2008.