And going by the research we have from Meehl, Kahneman and those folks, this might be as good as business projections get.
Any more complexity will just overfit to noise, because there's so much uncertainty around the future anyway.
Any more complexity will just overfit to noise, because there's so much uncertainty around the future anyway.
It almost seems like weather reports. Anyone can make a good short term forecast by looking out the window, but the amount of complexity, uncertainty and variables going into a long term forecast makes them almost pointless. Which is where Excel comes in I guess :-)