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Comment by duckfruit | Hacker News Reader

A rate hike that that was widely telegraphed and has been anticipated for years, to boot!

And no evidence inflation is under control + future rates increases are anticipated as well.

I'd love to get a flash poll of the finance industry and see how much people believe 1-8% interest rates are possible over the next 5 years. I bet a lot in the market think 3% interest rates are just not gonna happen.

Looking at some of the prediction markets has some ideas: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/u-s-interest-rate-p...

You mean rates won't get that high? Or that they will be much higher?

Won’t get that high. Just what’s the max interest rate we see over say the next 5 years? I imagine there’s still a lot of denial interspersed with the fear.

But it's the tone with which it was said, and the expressiveness of Chair Powell's eyebrows when he said it that was unanticipated.

Know that parents comment is /s but in truth, it really feels like interpretations of body language and text to indicate hawkishness/dovishness actually seems to matter.

Yeah, just to clarify, my own "/s" tag in this case didn't mean I wasn't serious, it just meant that I believed the market placed too much emphasis on purely subjective interpretations of things left unsaid.

It's good to try and get all all the data you can, but inferring how someone feels based on extra-textual elements is not a particularly scientific affair. Judges and lawyers commonly say "you can't possibly know how this other person felt" or "you can't possibly know what this other person thought", even when appearances are highly suggestive... for good reason.

Don’t fight the Fed.

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