The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles.
If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS cycles that keeps happenings and destroys people lives.
Luna went from $100 to 1 cent.
UST was also meant to be a stable coin, it was sold as being equivalent to stacking your money in a savings account, just stable currency that follows the USD value. Lots of people took their money OUT of many coins, and moved it to UST for "stability" thinking that their nest was safe during the storm. (Of course their trust was misplaced as it was not equivalent to keeping your money at the bank, but that's what they were led to believe)
It's equivalent as if banks were bankrupting all over the place in the United States with no bank insurance from the government.
No common measure comparaison with the SP 500 being down for a few months (or even a few years).
The market crash is the inevitable consequence of stopping the pandemic liquidity faucet. We were waiting for this for quite a while now, and with the FED having to rein in two years of crazy, a massive market correction was inevitable. The fundamentals of most companies are still firmly there, so they're mostly underperforming. There'll be casualties, but this was a much needed purge.
Just don't check your 401k balance for the rest of the year.
The general crypto economy and the general stock market have declined similarly in volatility adjusted terms.
This made no theoretical sense from the start and has been quantitatively untrue for years.
Gold is down 2% and Bitcoin is down like 30% or something.
Also please keep in mind this isn't Reddit, this is HN. The people here were there right at the beginning, and most of us played with the funny money while it was worthless. Some even became rich (Not me lol)! So don't fucking gaslight HN.
Since it's deflative all the incentive is holding, not spending. Why buy a house for 5 bitcoins now, if I can get it at 4 bitcoins 3 months from now..What if I could get it at 1 bitcoin in 3 years...crazy right..?
And no one spends, because the incentive is not here.
Our economies are all based on people wanting to spend or invest rather than stock money.
You can build shit on top of anything. But you can't build anything worthwhile on top of shit. Bitcoin at least has a solid, extractable, base.
Of course, the fundamentals have been horrible because the economy has been in a bad way for several years (certainly, after March 2020, but it wasn't great before then) but the stock market has been divorced from the actual economy longer than that.
Here's some pretty charts:
Wilshire 5000 / GDP Ratio https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett...
Dow / GDP Ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/2574/dow-to-gdp-ratio-chart (Yeah, the Dow is a horrible index, but check out that period from 1966 to 1982. The 1970s were not a happy time, either economically or financially.
The architects of boom/bust cycles are...you. I hope you picked up on the lessons from 2000 and 2008 and saved some of that six-figure average software developer pay.
Should the fed have stepped in to prevent a flash freeze in liquidity in March 2020? Probably. Did they go way way way too far? Maybe. Did they go way way too far in Aug 2020 and Nov 2020 and Dec 2020 and Jan 2021, etc? Definitely.
But a comprehensive theory exists. It won Friedrich Hayek the Nobel Prize in 1974. You should at least be familiar with it.
That's another reason markets get a little bit of steering.
"Is anyone else <obvious case of pandering to common HN tribal confirmation bias for a dominant position on HN>" -> lots of upvotes and in-group people agreeing with each other.
It's basically just hating on an HN out group.
Good crypto/finance conversations HN on are unfortunately not possible. I just flag posts like this, they're just flame bait.
I've been DCA'ing ETH for a few years now and have somehow managed to both not make it my entire identity, and not constantly complain about the people who do.
The only time I hear about crypto outside of my crypto-specific social spheres is people dunking on crypto and NFT's completely unprompted. We get it, you don't like it, move on.
are they even on hn anymore?
I thought this was supposed to be a forum of like minded people interested in technology and its potential applications. Ever since the start of this last bull market it's felt incredibly hostile to anyone even remotely interested in blockchains and related tech. Maybe it's always been like this, I've only been here a couple years.
You kinda never win unless you stop playing.
I am in the opinion that we should experiment with models other than a bunch of academics with no real practical experience getting together every month and deciding on the fate of the world economy. I am sure we could come up with something better.
"Islamic banking and finance — the industry built around avoiding interest and other financial practices found in violation of sharia (Islamic law) — has been both praised and criticized by observers.
The industry has been praised for turning a "theory" into an industry that has grown to about $2 trillion in size; for attracting banking users whose religious objections have kept them away from conventional banking services, drawing non-Muslim bankers into the field, and (according to other supporters) introducing a more stable, less risky form of finance.
However, the industry has also been criticized for ignoring its "basic philosophy" and moved in the wrong direction over the decades — leading both outsiders and rank and file Muslims to question it. This has happened first by the sidelining the original finance method advocated by promoters — risk-sharing finance — in favor of fixed-markup finance of purchases (particularly murabaha), and then by distorting the rules of that fixed-markup murabaha, effectively delivering conventional cash interest loans following conventional interest rates, but disguised with "ruses and subterfuges" and burdened with "higher costs, bigger risks".
Other issues/complaints raised include a lack of effort by the industry to help small traders and the poor; the question of how to deal with inflation, late payments, the lack of hedging of currencies and rates or sharia-compliant places to park short term funds for liquidity; the non-Muslim ownership of much of Islamic banking, and the concentration of what ownership is in Muslim hands."
Yes, prohibiting interest is a seismic shift, but at the end of the day, it's going to be better off for everyone. Islam lays outside the capital-communist spectrum, and is basically the best of all worlds.
Yes, prohibiting interest is a seismic shift, but at the end of the day, it's going to be better off for everyone. Islam lays outside the capital-communist spectrum, and is basically the best of all worlds.
Wants a centralized version of Ethereum when checks and balances? Israel is building that.
You can even build an Islamic monetary structure enforced by smart contracts (addressing sibling comment: historically Islamic financial systems collapsed because they are enforced by corruptible people).
Like all things, most experiments would fail (and most people shouldn't put their savings in experiments!). We might end up with even a worse monetary system (unlikely imho, because I believe the markets are free to accept and reject those experiments). I won't fight it though - the markets are brutal, and in time, kills bad ideas. I do want the experimentations to happen though!
There's the gold standard. There are an estimated 250,000 tons of gold in the world, with estimated reserves of 60,000 tons. (https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-gold-has-been-found-world) Unfortunately, quite a lot of that is tied up in things like jewelry which is fixable, I suppose. And world gold production (https://www.statista.com/statistics/238414/global-gold-produ...) has roughly matched gross world product growth (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product#Recent_gro...) over the last few years. On the other hand, when gold production starts going to zero while economic activity continues to grow, you get deflation and financial collapse, so, yeah.
There's a silver standard and multi-metallic standards, and I'm really hoping there's a hilarious story behind this sentence from wikipedia: "Great Britain accidentally adopted a de facto gold standard in 1717 when Sir Isaac Newton, then-master of the Royal Mint, set the exchange rate of silver to gold too low, thus causing silver coins to go out of circulation." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard) (Apparently, the US's introduction to the gold standard was also accidental, caused by the 1849 California gold rush.) Unfortunately, those systems didn't prevent a crash about every decade. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis#19th_century)
Or you could let things float, like exactly nobody else does. I'm sure that won't be rife with corruption, bank failures, and its own boom and bust cycles.
Also, if you make software developer salary, you should absolutely be hedged against losing your job, having plenty of savings in reserve to last you well over a year.
Not to mention crypto marketcap and volume is a drop in the bucket compared to securities.
“What can you do when the entire economy is based on lies?”
Such an uncomfortable chuckle from the crowd!