> the past 100 years provide a fairly compelling narrative.
In the US. The Nikkei is down over 25% from its peak 32 years ago.
In the US. The Nikkei is down over 25% from its peak 32 years ago.
Sounds a lot like people examining only post-WW2 markets in the United States during a period of historic national expansion and growth and thinking they'll continue on average.
The next few decades have very different social and economic considerations of the past few decades, so...
The demographics of Japan weren’t a sudden change or surprise their population is always been heading in this direction , coupled with their strong anti immigration culture and barriers to entry. It was bound to happen sooner or later .
It is extremely unlikely any one company /market can keep ahead of every single tech /product evolution cycle and always be the best .
While it is hard to guess correctly when that will happen as it did in 90s , but it will always inevitable sooner or later .
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The growth of U.S. economy post ww2 and importantly post Bretton woods have been phenomenal is very true, however were already a powerhouse , the preceding 300 hundred years have also been explosive growth catching one wave after after .
Largely thanks to immigration of some form or other .
Modern America has always been built on the backs and hard-work of immigration. First European settlers fleeing stagnant economies, actual slavery for a while, economic slavery? of poor driven by famine or lack of opportunity later like the Irish wave or Chinese etc, then those affected by various wars, and most recently top talent from most countries in the world .
It has always been exploitative even now it is , most immigrants legal or illegal are paid less than their peers for example
Illegal immigration is more well known on how they are paid less, even In legal work visas like say H1B changing companies is hard because out of work even for a week you to leave the country immediately, changing employers also affects the Permanent residency qualifications, so people on those visas move jobs less, on average get 10-20% less and have lesser negotiating power, companies know this and use those visas as cost saving technique.
Despite all the problems around immigration, U.S. still remains the country most open to immigration , few countries come close to the volume of immigration legal and illegal U.S. supports, and path to citizenship .
Japan is other end of the spectrum in terms of immigration, which for the economy is a big problem because of such aging population.
[0] https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/09/the-greatest-bubble...
For a huge portion of people, it is impossible to build wealth on a salary. Investing is basically mandatory unless you want to have a very low budget in retirement and live entirely off social security.
I don't know any economic historian with expertise in Japan who believes that.
Their bubble basically puts all other bubbles to shame. The land under the Imperial Palace really was worth more than all the real estate in California at the peak. Japan was destined to have an epic crash of equal proportions to the size of their bubble, any US actions notwithstanding.