My daughter did just did college applications and her school used a service call SCOIR. For all of the colleges she was interested, they had a two dimensional (test score, GPA) graph that showed all recent applicants from her school and whether or not the applicant got accepted into that particular college. You could then see exactly what your chances are. For schools with too few applicants they did not generate this graph.

After looking at her college choices it seemed like less of crapshoot. The patterns were pretty consistent.