> if there are buyers, competition, and houses are continuing to move quickly, then it’s a bold statement to say they are overvalued and that we should predict a significant decline.

No, for the simple reason that (most) people buy homes with mortgages. Take a look at the 30 year mortgage interest rate over the past few months.

The total cost to own a newly purchased home is what matters, not the actual sale price. That's mostly paid by the bank.

Even if buyers are prepared to absorb the massive increase in total cost of ownership necessary to keep prices moving upward, it probably doesn't matter because many prospective buyers will no longer even satisfy the mortgage DTI qualification at current prices.

You may object that some are buying with cash. While that's true, it's not enough of the market to sustain prices.