Unherd of before rulings, but this is the big one.
But they’re just warming up. Obergefell v. Hodges, Affirmative Action… a lot of unwinding in the next generation.
Remember, both sides are the same. /s
But they’re just warming up. Obergefell v. Hodges, Affirmative Action… a lot of unwinding in the next generation.
Remember, both sides are the same. /s
Likewise in affirmative action. You just listed three things where the supposedly arch conservative Supreme Court is simply making our law the same as France.
30 days: http://webserver1.lsb.state.ok.us/cf_pdf/2021-22%20INT/SB/SB...
South Dakota is working on 5 weeks. There are something like a 100 state bills in work this year.
The reason abortion is not legal until 22 weeks in France is because the Netherlands allows it, and our left-and-center governments don't want to spend the political capital on it. Same stupid reason why Democrats haven't passed a bill since Roe vs Wade.
That said, I would not want to be a Republican right now, giving people something stupid that they want is the best way to get to stupid-ass results.
Roe guarantees elective abortions to the end of the second trimester with few restrictions, and is well to the left of what the public supports: https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-....
Generally, when the current law is detached from public opinion, the party that seeks to change the law should stand to benefit from it. Of course liberals will use their vast media and cultural power to dupe people into thinking the Supreme Court just banned abortion. But most people will notice that the Supreme Court didn’t do that when blue states inevitably adopt liberal abortion laws as a reaction. And most of the people who will be really worked up about it will live in blue states that will quickly enact abortion until birth. I suspect most other states will pick some 13-15 week middle ground.
I can see Republicans fumbling the ball by trying to ban abortion nationwide. But I can also see a bunch of white liberals reacting to this by shouting “celebrate your abortion” and turning off the mostly Hispanic 3 out of 10 Democrats who identify as “Pro Life,” as well as a bunch of squishy moderates.
And do you thinkt he cons on the SCOTUS are satisfied with this? They’ll be glad to ban abortion nationwide completely. They’re not gonna leave it to the states.
Did you read what Alito wrote? He's explicitly stating he doesn't want SCOTUS ruling on the legality of abortion. How, precisely, would SCOTUS "ban abortion" in this scenario?
What's your point?
They largely won’t even uphold the VRA.
I know you think conservatives are just as results oriented as liberals, but that’s not true. No liberal Justice will ever go wobbly on a liberal social issue. It’s always a conservative justice that breaks the party line on cases like Bostock (O’Conner, Kennedy, Roberts, and now Gorsuch).
Roe is uniquely at risk because it embraces the liberal notion of Supreme Court as national moral tribunal in its purest form. Even liberals struggle to defend the decision on its on merits. Tim Carney has collected an entire list of quotes from prominent liberal academics criticizing Roe https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/restori...
> One of the most curious things about Roe is that, behind its own verbal smokescreen, the substantive judgment on which it rests is nowhere to be found.” That's liberal legal scholar Laurence Tribe.
Decisions like Oberrgefell and Bostock are on far firmer legal footing.
On what basis? Do you think they’ll make up a right to override state abortion laws the way Roe did?
Around time Roe was decided, the high courts of several developed countries (Italy, West Germany, etc.) all took up the same issue. The US was the only one to find a fundamental right to abortion. Germany found the opposite, a fundamental right to life. The other courts determined it was an issue for the legislature.
There are six votes to overturn Roe. There aren’t six votes to overturn a federal enactment that protects some level of abortion rights.
I don’t see much evidence of what you’re asserting. 13 states have already pre-banned abortion, and another ten plan to when Roe falls. Doesn’t seem to be much of a split.
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/map-23-states-ban-abor...
Similarly, polling of what “most Americans oppose” says the opposite of what you assert.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/03/most-amer...
35% of republicans say abortion should be legal in all/most cases compared to 80% of democrats: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/05/06/about-six-i.... Until democrats got more liberal in 2008, there were about the same number of pro choice republicans as there are pro life democrats—over 35% in both parties.
Most Americans don’t know what Roe specifically requires and thinks abortion would become illegal if it were overturned.
If you actually ask people where they think the line should be drawn, most people don’t support Roe’s full scope. They think it should be legal in the first trimester, and support other restrictions that Roe precludes. 44% of democrats think life begins sometime in the first trimester.
https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-us-supreme-court-abort...
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-...
That would violate the Full Faith and Credit clause of the US Constitution. Even before Obergefell v. Hodges, states that didn't allow gay couples to marry still had to honor the marriages of gay couples who were married in other states that did allow it.
This being said there are lot of R politicians who secretly hate this potential ruling. They want to say a few words about being pro-life, raise some money and thats it. They don't want the blow back of abortion actually becoming illegal.
I’m getting pretty tired of watching what might as well be 4+ parities pretend to be 2.