I think it's good to see some novel ideas in this space. I'm having trouble imagining it actually working out with things like healthcare, though, because of difficulty in defining the futures, or because some things are more likely to progress or get worse on their own, or independent of the provider.

I think it's a real and interesting problem, and find this idea intriguing but my intuition is that it wouldn't work in practice.

Also, wouldn't this lead to weird incentives for the market participants? Like in an extreme case, murder?