Does this guy ever get tired of saying "this year" and "next year" every year and being wrong every single time? Do his investors?
loop:
Manager: how long will this feature take?
SWE: By lunchtime, tops
3 weeks later:
Manager: feature complete, right?
SWE (sweating bullets): We're just testing the final bits
goto loop
I'm not trying to claim that each individual claim of Musk's has this potential behind it, but equating it to day-to-day situations of underestimating the difficulty of a small task at your day-job oversimplifies the matter way too much and just makes excuses for someone who should TRULY know better.
Have they actually achieved that yet? It seems like the Teslas can only do their Autopilot magic on more-or-less straight motorways with every other car travelling at the same speed in clear weather conditions.
These are circumstances in which human drivers don't have accidents, either.
It handled heavy rain. It knew where the lines were even though I couldn’t even see them myself. It does really well even when there are no lines.
It does turns and exits. It slows down automatically for curves. It even swerved out of the way when someone was merging into me. It was fine with drivers going faster and slower than myself.
Frankly, I have no idea what you’re talking about, especially regarding a clear day and straight lines.
It drove better than me. In my use case, the 2021 Model 3 is already practically self-driving. I legitimately felt less safe while manual operating the vehicle.
It knew, or it guessed and presented it as it knew in the same way humans guess where the lines are and keep driving when they’re not visible?
It doesn't work on single-lane roads so I wasn't able to find out if it can see deer, sheep, cows, or other animals. It probably can.
It's like being driven by a drunk teenager, because it doesn't anticipate, reacts late, and cannot cope with developing situations.
I don't really see the point in them. Why would you want a self-driving car anyway?
That means you don't actually have the FSD Beta.
That's a totally different software stack.
It still doesn't answer the question "why would I want that?", either.
You can't be serious with that argument.
He says what he believes, this topic is where he has totally miscalculated. And he recently admired that but said he just has to look at what he think the current fundamental problem is and when it will be solved.
> Do his investors?
Mhh as an investor I would say, no.
Because for me its not about matching prediction but its about overall strategy and the competition.
If there were millions of self driving taxis on the road from the competition I would suggest that is a big problem. However that is not case.
Massive investment in this is the correct thing to do in my opinion. Their approach is correct in my opinion, they are trying to solve the hard problem. They have done many things that no competitor has even remotely done.
So I am happy even if he miss predicts this for the next 4 years unless there is continues progress and the competition has not 100% solved the problem.
And nobody dies if I break a promise. Autopilot/FSD has claimed quite a few lives, in large part because it doesn't live up to the hype coming out of Musk's mouth.
I guess that one way to analyses issues if you already have a result that you want to happen.