Tesla Accused of Cutting Corner That Makes Level 3 Self-Driving Impossible
futurism.com
futurism.com
Does this guy ever get tired of saying "this year" and "next year" every year and being wrong every single time? Do his investors?
loop:
Manager: how long will this feature take?
SWE: By lunchtime, tops
3 weeks later:
Manager: feature complete, right?
SWE (sweating bullets): We're just testing the final bits
goto loop
I'm not trying to claim that each individual claim of Musk's has this potential behind it, but equating it to day-to-day situations of underestimating the difficulty of a small task at your day-job oversimplifies the matter way too much and just makes excuses for someone who should TRULY know better.
Have they actually achieved that yet? It seems like the Teslas can only do their Autopilot magic on more-or-less straight motorways with every other car travelling at the same speed in clear weather conditions.
These are circumstances in which human drivers don't have accidents, either.
It handled heavy rain. It knew where the lines were even though I couldn’t even see them myself. It does really well even when there are no lines.
It does turns and exits. It slows down automatically for curves. It even swerved out of the way when someone was merging into me. It was fine with drivers going faster and slower than myself.
Frankly, I have no idea what you’re talking about, especially regarding a clear day and straight lines.
It drove better than me. In my use case, the 2021 Model 3 is already practically self-driving. I legitimately felt less safe while manual operating the vehicle.
It doesn't work on single-lane roads so I wasn't able to find out if it can see deer, sheep, cows, or other animals. It probably can.
It's like being driven by a drunk teenager, because it doesn't anticipate, reacts late, and cannot cope with developing situations.
I don't really see the point in them. Why would you want a self-driving car anyway?
That means you don't actually have the FSD Beta.
That's a totally different software stack.
It still doesn't answer the question "why would I want that?", either.
You can't be serious with that argument.
It knew, or it guessed and presented it as it knew in the same way humans guess where the lines are and keep driving when they’re not visible?
He says what he believes, this topic is where he has totally miscalculated. And he recently admired that but said he just has to look at what he think the current fundamental problem is and when it will be solved.
> Do his investors?
Mhh as an investor I would say, no.
Because for me its not about matching prediction but its about overall strategy and the competition.
If there were millions of self driving taxis on the road from the competition I would suggest that is a big problem. However that is not case.
Massive investment in this is the correct thing to do in my opinion. Their approach is correct in my opinion, they are trying to solve the hard problem. They have done many things that no competitor has even remotely done.
So I am happy even if he miss predicts this for the next 4 years unless there is continues progress and the competition has not 100% solved the problem.
And nobody dies if I break a promise. Autopilot/FSD has claimed quite a few lives, in large part because it doesn't live up to the hype coming out of Musk's mouth.
I guess that one way to analyses issues if you already have a result that you want to happen.
1. Tesla vehicles are drive-by-wire.
2. The missing component is a backup chip in the steering system.
3. The backup was excluded in a time frame that precluded robustness testing.
Are any of these items wrong? Because, if not, characterizing this as "oh well you have to bring your car in if you want our full self-driving magic" seems like a massive PR spin and a huge disservice to Tesla owners who every day bet their lives on Tesla's drive by wire system.
(Missing/not using a backup chip on a safety-critical system is exactly what caused the failure of the flight characteristic modification software on the 787-MAX. Missing backups was also identified as a possible root cause in the Toyota deaths. Backups are important, and the history of safety-critical systems that ignored the need for backups is littered with human bodies. Shit happens at scale.)
If the answer is "nothing bad, yet, but maybe something bad when we ship FSD" then Tesla's approach here seems reasonable (modulo not informing customers, which will probably catch them a fine in at least some of these jurisdictions, but in my book is more like a "mild breach of commercial contract" issue than a "fundamental consumer rights" issue).
If the answer is "something bad" then this is a big deal and could be bad news for Tesla.
I guess the operative question is: if the controller fails, what happens? If the answer is "loss of operator control", then saying that the car isn't drive by wire is the worst type of "technically true". Just like it was, in a silly sort of way, technically true that the 787-MAX's flight characteristics weren't changed in a way that required retraining...
What is the safety-critical use case of the steering column controller? Just interrupting the ADAS?
Seems pretty smart to me.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/tesla-cut-a-steering-compone...
Here's why I'm confused: in that case why not just remove both chips?
Having no backup for a component involved in the steering system seems like a bad idea for any level of ADAS, including L1, and possibly even fully manual depending on how the steering system works. At least without a very thorough analysis of system behavior in various failure modes, which... is that possible in 3 weeks?
But then, Boeing convinced the FAA that backups weren't necessary for the 787-MAX sensors because a component that was modifying the flight characteristics could be over-ridden by a human and therefore wasn't safety-critical... so, WCGW, really?
Wonder if they only nixed it from cars ordered without FSD at checkout.
/s
From the article:
"... removed one of two electronic control units ..."
"... amidst a global semiconductor shortage. ..."
"... drivers will need to take their vehicles in to get it retrofitted with a new chip if they want a level three self-driving ..."