There is no secret "scarcity" creates more demand masterplan from Nintendo.
- Nintendo sells to retailers (for the most part) - so any type of price gouging isn't benefiting them.
- Everybody at Nintendo would prefer retailers to never run out of stock. The second a retailer runs out of stock - overall customer demand drops. There is no secret evasion to other channels (which of course are also out of stock) happening.
- Hype effects are only _maybe_ valid for very niche core gamer titles (Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, etc.). Yes, sometimes these titles benefit a little in the beginning pulling in demand from week 2 & 3 into week 1 if presales are closed very early due to limited availability.
- Core gamer titles generate furious outrage on the internet, which sometimes even spills over to mainstream journalism, but are barely relevant to the bottom line compared to mass market titles (Mario, AC, Zelda of course but also titles like NintenDogs).
- Production Planning starts anywhere from 8 weeks to 6 months in advance of a titles release. It's damn hard to predict how well a title will sell that early on. It is even worse for HW which has lead times much, much longer.
- Games are shipped via air and final assembly happens in the region where they are sold. HW is shipped via boat from Asia directly. This means right about now somebody is ordering Christmas HW. How do you think the red left joy-con will sell in December? We had tricked-out time-series forecasting statistics at the end but still got it wrong ~20% of the time.
- Overstock is crazy expensive, both in the channel and in Nintendo Warehouses. If you order too much of a title and it turns out the title only has a core day 1 audience you or the channel which you made believe in the title is totally screwed.