But that's unnecessary. If developers build more luxury housing, that'll reduce the price of existing housing, such that it becomes affordable.
Again, in principle, if you just keep building, the market would eventually sort this out. Of course, in the process, you'll overbuild housing proportionally to the investment demand. Once the investment demand leaves, the market will crash, which isn't necessarily a great plan either. And we are talking about a lot of finite resources being misallocated in the meantime, while the market forces figure this out.
If you'd like to resolve this problem faster than the market would naturally sort it out, and harness market forces to do so rather than naively fighting them, it makes sense to cut out the excess, artificial investment demand in the meantime. Sure, it would be better to have not created that problem in the first place, but, here we are.
When markets work they are very good at finding prices. But when they fail you get this sort of thing.
There needs to be a lot of planned intervention in the housing sector. Entities with a lot of capital need to build the houses that people need to live in where they need to live in them and then let them live in them.
The market will not do that.
People who are pro-market forces (such as myself) believe strongly that if you were allowed to build apartment buildings in neighborhoods like this that enough capital absolutely would be raised to raise supply. After all, you could take the current house I rent now and put in two walls for under 50k and start renting it out as a duplex two families but that is currently illegal. Hard to blame the market forces for this.
Though as a maximalist on this I'm still upset this is the best compromise we can get since the lot of this house is definitely big enough for more than just 2/4 units.
The house I live in is rented which means it actually wouldnt be eligible since the owner must live in the house for 3 years after turning it into a duplex.
Maybe this will incentivize owners of houses like this to sell to people who are willing to divide it in two? I hope so! But not sure.
Ha, did not know about the three year ownership requirement, classic CA NIMBYism. Still progress.
If you took government control out of the market prices would plummet. Any plank will do, supply, financial backing or interest rates and the whole thing comes crashing down. That’s the real problem, how to cause a 20% “correction” and not 80%.
My house is 8 hours from Vancouver, 8 hours from Calgary, 5 hours from Banff, it’s a town of 10,000 people, it was built in 1904 and is 2500 sqft. It’s been modestly renovated and is worth $950,000. The market is insane.
If so, revelstoke like Vancouver is actually pretty hemmed in by water and mountains. There isn’t an infinite amount of easy to build on land like the on the prairies.
Quality of life in revelstoke is probably amazing! Small town, ski hill, mountains, biking, snowmobiling, fishing, lakes, rivers, airport, and lots of jobs
Demand will always exceed supply in desirable locations, that is part of what makes them desirable. Would you spend 30% of you and your wife’s income to secure a plot in such a paradise? 40%? 50%? Lots of people will take the bet and risk. If you lose and go bankrupt well then you move to the easily affordable town in the equivalent of the fly over states. Odds are the million dollar mortgage will get inflated away you just have to tread water while interest rates are historically low until you can juice your income or hourly rate up enough to make the million dollars you are in debt seem trivial.
Oh it’s already inflated away 30% in less than a year. It was 30% of my income.
What is happening in Dallas which has no zoning rules? (Or am I thinking of Austin Texas?)
I do not know, but it would be useful for this debate
Houston is booming I hear.
They're cheaper because they can still expand outward more than SF, LA, NY, etc before hitting inconvenient geography. Lots of other places that benefit from this too, of course, not just Texas.
So I guess it works.
In any case, all three have rampant HOAs which serve the same purpose as zoning.
I was defending a "planned intervention".
If the last few decades have taught us anything, it'd that location (and every social category that location encodes) matters to people more than luxury, or rather a desirable location is the biggest luxury.
This is why a 3 BD fixer-upper in Palo Alto will cost more than a luxury 5 bedroom house in East San Jose.
To have any effect on housing prices I desirable places, you'd have to build gobs more housing in the highly desirable places, but those are usually the places most opposed to new housing development. And if you build a little bit more, because location dominates all, the existing housing would be as expensive as the new luxury housing in that location, because there is always a higher demand/supply ratio to live in Palo Alto than for East San Jose.
By the same token, building luxury housing in less desirable places won't change things unless you somehow make those places more desirable, but that takes a lot more than new luxury apartments. You usually have to change the kind of people that inhabit that location.
We absolutely need to build more housing of all categories everywhere, but it won't have much effect on housing costs until we address transportation, public education, and crime, the massive factors that affect housing costs.
Targeting stuff that isn't currently residential would be a much easier starting point.
IMO, but more controversially, it goes even further: in the long run, especially with fast transportation and digital communications, it's hard to see certain places ever getting "affordable" given today's wealth distributions. Some locations are going to be in higher demand due to non-human-development related factors (weather, scenery, etc). Others due more to development factors: NYC is more in-demand than if it was an empty bunch of land because we've already done a bunch of development there. (That latter case is especially interesting because it shows how development can both increase supply AND demand, it's not solely something that affects supply.) So if some places are inherently going to be more in-demand than others, and you build more when the market price is currently $X, prices won't fall very quickly at all as you get the people who otherwise want to live there, but couldn't do $X but would do it for $X-1, $X-2, etc, now re-interested in the area!
Agreed, and human development is a major part of that. NYC is a cultural center of the world, which is a result of its human development, and that has a tremendous currency and gravity over and above Manhattan's physical grid.
Not really: Say there's one free acre of land in town. You could build one mansion on it, or a highrise with 100 apartments.
Building the mansion isn't going to move the needle on any existing housing at all, as it's just one unit.
Locally, when I see people complain about luxury housing being built, it's because the developer is building high-spec townhomes and selling them for $800k+. Instead of lower-spec townhomes at $500k. The developer can't fit appreciably more homes in the same footprint (they're all 3-4 stories tall here - reducing size likely means one fewer stories). And the market will bear $800k+, so that's what we get.
The real answer is build even more homes. Or allow high-rises on the same lots.
In theory, the family that buys the $800k townhome came from somewhere. The smaller house they vacated is now open for somebody else (who in turn moved out of a studio flat that's now open, and on down).
A developer will, indeed. More profit. But an acre is small enough that it could just as well be a rich individual buyer, in which case they'll build what they like.
There's a half-acre plot for sale nearby for nearly $2M, I'm curious if it ends up being bought by an IPO millionaire to build a small mansion or by some developer to put up two-story apartments. Could go either way.
Local to me, redevelopment of a lot with an existing SFH tends to be another SFH because of zoning (unfortunately - many of the lots would be perfect for a nice duplex or very small apartment block).
Larger lots tend to be bought by corporate developers, both because they have the resources to develop it fully and also because they frequently have to battle NIMBYs for a while to get re-zoning approved (I tend to side with the developers, except when they buy parkland to develop, but that’s a whole other discussion).
And do they want to live in that mansion surrounded by multi-unit buildings built by developers buying the nearby acres? Also seems unlikely.
Or, they didn’t sell it and are just seeking rent on it, now. For this effect to really work, the number of home-owners should equal the number of homes.
Right now, there are many, many fewer home-owners than homes.
That's fine, it still provides housing for someone. And there are people who actually prefer to rent, so it's good to have rental units available.
Problematic is when they hold on to it and keep it empty, thus occupying space but providing housing for no one.
(Slightly higher because it is mathematically impossible for anyone to move if there are no empty homes, and they sometimes have to sit vacant while being renovated or are in the process of being sold)
(I say this sitting in the middle of the LA metropolis between two almost undeveloped hillsides of ~10 acres each, haha; and a thousand more people in this neighborhood would be significant for us (maybe? dunno the actual pop count) but nothing to LA as a whole, AFAIK)
However, once that high end market pressure has been abated, then there a real and hard limits to the amount of high end housing that can/will be available to low income customers. Instead of being available cheaply, this high-end housing stock will end up being used as a vacation house or a short the rental, neither of which actually help reduce local demand for housing.
There are many markets the the number you can sell far exceeds the available land to build.
I fail to see how lower demand for high end housing makes it more economical to build mid-range housing? The price for that housing will be lower and land to buiody it on will be taken up by lower density high end housing.
High end housing construction is better than no construction, but please don't pretend it is sufficient to solve the need for other types of construction.
Developers today build low density single family homes often due to zoning. If the law says you can build 3000 sqft on a given lot, the most profitable thing to build is probably single family. But if they were allowed 30,000 sqft or 300,000 sqft then you’re almost surely going to get multi family instead. At that point high end and mid range condos will likely both be profitable, but developer returns would be better for the former (if they can find buyers). So as high end buyers become more scarce, more developers will transition to mid range
If you mean classic "free" market failure, then I would disagree. The housing market is replete with constraints that are imposed by government. I think it is more accurate to say that it is a classic regulatory failure (at least in some jurisdictions).
Depends how big the "area" is that you're thinking about. The effect of increasing housing supply is well-studied. Demand can only grow as fast as the population does. If one area experiences increasing demand, then another area will have decreasing demand, comparatively.
(AFAIK) Venice is pretty much entirely shit house -> excellent house development, with some multi-unit (townhouses). DTLA is shit building -> modern condos / luxury apts.
AFAIK in both places a secondary effect of all development is that each area becomes more desirable. I guess, sure, if one stopped becoming more desirable the pull from the other would change demand between the two, but, a) they're not, they're both developing, b) (anecdotally) that's a drop in the bucket compared to the overall demand, and c) they have sufficiently different appeals that the demand isn't coming from the same people.
There's no such thing as unlimited demand for luxury housing. Build enough and the rent will fall for the existing housing stock.
Moving requires finding a home somewhere that they can afford. The fact that they’ve been subjected to rising rents rather than a financial windfall like nearby homeowners… makes that far more difficult for them
If they couldn’t afford to buy then they got to take advantage of a locale they desired at a lower price, another benefit of renting.
(While it would be nice if anyone could live — and own — anywhere they like without worrying about price or competing demand from the billions of other humans around, that’s so far away from reality it’s not worth discussing.)
According to this reasoning, if Ferrari builds more cars, Fiats will get less expensive.
I don’t think that’s how it’s supposed to work.
We treat that weird situation as obvious undersupply in the car market, but somehow expect it with houses. Why should old, used houses sell for more than their purchase price?
2 scenarios come to mind:
1. Ferrari decrease their sale prices, thus they are more affordable for all, thus exerting price pressure on Fiat.
2. People somehow have a bucket more money and now buy Ferraris. But with all this money sloshing around, Fiat might as well up their prices because it'd make little difference on the end customers purchase decision.
In either case, the Ferrari and the Fiat are closer on price but the price pressure on Fiat varies. Curious to know your thoughts?
Lets build shitty buildings that will last for decades. Affordable housing is and will always be a horrible idea. Build and build until you get a surplus and suddenly tons of housing is affordable.
This is like saying food banks are a horrible idea, and we should just focus on job growth so everyone can afford to buy their own food. It comes across as really tone deaf to ignore that some people need help now and that even though it isn’t a complete solution, feeding one person today or getting one person off the street into newly constructed affordable housing makes a real difference to them.
The quality of the building is determined by building codes
Building codes set the lower bounds of acceptable quality of a building, which is good but not all-encompassing (and for a good reason).
This is not an easy problem - and as soon as you try and alert people to the fact that you're going to fix it the market will respond and the problem will occur.
This issue isn't that the laws will move too quickly but that the open intent to pass those laws will spook the market and cause a panic - which is actually a lot worse if you want to deflate the market because any aide or support you'd want to provide is going to come in well after the market has already responded.
And, to return to my main point above... when that happens people with a lot of free capital sitting around are going to be able to game the system and make a bunch of money off of it. So wealth inequality will increase and it's likely a lot of folks will be in an absolutely terrible spot.
Most people aren’t selling. So they haven’t lost.
And how would you limit the effect if housing dropped for the many other reasons prices drop?? You don’t.
This is the big problem the government has: it is very difficult to unwind this mess through policy without triggering a cascade. Likely it will come eventually, they just want to ensure it’s not their party in office when the shoe finally drops.
Not quite true. It would be truer if they have no debt.
But having a large debt, and negative equity, makes a family very vulnerable economically.
folks who gamble with money have to accept the risk part of the equation, whatever vessel that may be. if somebody invested in tech stocks few months ago they are now probably crying in the corner.
And also don't forget that whenever "everybody loses some money" the people at the top are in a great position to grab an even bigger slice of the pie.
Whether or not you feel for the pain these people would go through, you're going to feel pain when it ripples out the rest of the economy.
I do think it would have been better if they hadn’t announced it was limited to 2 years but that’s not practical.
I’m a huge proponent of the “build more supply” side. But that takes time. And in addition, there is a huge 2 year gap of supply creation that didn’t happen because of the pandemic.
This may help ease some of that pandemic related imbalance.
I'm dubious that Canada's policy will achieve that, as I understand it they exempt purchases by foreign students which is already a major avenue for foreign investment property purchases. If they limited resident aliens to a single piece of property which they also lived in, that would be something but my understanding is that they don't.