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Comment by brokenodometer | Hacker News Reader

Prosecutors do a lot of work, but the idea that they lose a lot is questionable. In the federal system, more than 90% of defendants plead guilty, and only around 1% of defendants take a case to trial and ultimately win. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/11/only-2-of-f...

The numbers in state courts may vary, but in NY they are similar to the federal system. https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Documents/New_...

Obviously a guilty plea still requires work, and maybe a lot of it. But in terms of outcomes, they rarely lose.

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Yes true, I was more thinking when things went to trial. Pleas make up a large share of outcomes. I was just more surprised at how badly things can go wrong in the process which ends up with a dismissal or acquittal; whether that's police process, evidentiary, testimony, etc.

The troubling part is the prime tactic is to get people to plea. One of the methods employed is to massively overcharge where the defendant is looking at say 20 years if they lose at trial vs 5 years if they plea. Most people plea, even if they are innocent. Many prosecutors overcharge even when they have a weak case. It's not justice, it's the system protecting its existence.

It's estimated 2-10% of the incarcerated population is innocent or wrongly convicted.

Yes and I believe that is death row inmates who's conviction gets a lot of scrutiny. Imagine how many inmates who plead to get a lighter sentence who were facing 20 years for something they didn't do. As far as the government is concerned, a guilty plea is a win, regardless of actual action. They get to show that they deserve their jobs.

"Obviously a guilty plea still requires work, and maybe a lot of it. But in terms of outcomes, they rarely lose."

Right, but this is the result of:

1. Selection bias (prosecutors only prosecute a case they have a great chance of winning).

2. Negotiation (prosecutors will charge for lesser crimes than those they believe were committed, in order to gain agreement to a plea deal).

The percentage alone doesn't tell you much about how hard it is to gain a conviction. It tells you a lot about how willing prosecutors are to prosecute a case that they may not be able to win.

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