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Comment by fallingknife | Hacker News Reader

TWTR was trading at 33 before Elon announced his stake, and he offered 54. That's a 60% premium.

What happened last week is irrelevant. If I can sell my shares on the market today for $46 and Elon is offering $54, that's a ~17% premium. It's better than nothing but not nearly enough to convince >50% of shareholders to vote in his favor. Several major ones have already said no to the offer (https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-prince-alwaleed-bin...).

If it was a serious offer the market would have already valued TWTR at ~$54, but it has actually gone down after Musk announced his bid.

It's gone down since he's made it clear he will liquidate his stake if the deal doesn't go through.

So then the market expects it to happen, which is my point. As it stands it is unlikely that the deal will go through.

Sounds like the market thinks it's about 50/50 (given the current price is half way between the previous price and the offered price).

Twitter is down a whopping 0.33% today.

down 2% 1 hour later

> What happened last week is irrelevant

Information about a potential takeover bid is absolutely relevant, and it's generally reasonable to calculate the premium from before that news first existed.

What happened last week was information about a potential takeover bid.

What happened last week was priced in 6 days ago.

It is not at all irrelevant. I would be surprised if any reputable financial source would think of this as a 17% premium and not include last week.

gpm said the rest already as a reply.

As to the Saudi prince. Regardless of the topic. In any situation, it is hard to take the prince at face value knowing he pushed hard to successfully give the Kushners and co $2B[0]. If there’s more at play for the prince than short or medium term money, what he says is irrelevant then.

[0]: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/04/11/hes-cashing-kus... or https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jared-kushner-scores-2-bil...

You can't sell your shares on the market today for $46 as an intuitional investor though, the price will tank.

The board kind of has to put this to a shareholder vote to limit their liability. If they don't, they'll be sued by shareholders very quickly.

Musk himself will probably sue them immediately as the second largest holder behind Vanguard.

I would never stop laughing if this happened.

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