I just realized that we can use the current stock price to derive a probability that Elon Musks offer will be accepted.

Let `cp` be the current stock price; let `op` be the original price, before the offer was made; let `bp` be the bid price, what Musk offered; and let P be the probability that the offer is accepted. Then it must apply that

`cp = op + P*(bp - op)`

Meaning: The current price is the original price plus the probability that the offer is accepted times the stock price premium if the offer is accepted.

=> P = (cp - op) / (bp - op)

Plugging in the current numbers gives us a probability of about 50 %.