“Real price of gold” is an interesting concept, probably showing a statistical quirk of backtracing CPI than anything useful though? I’d have to study how it was calculated.

Yes, your graph at the end showing SPY in gold falling below the 200 day MA is exactly what I was talking about.

I absolutely agree gold is volatile in the short term and not some magical replacement for fiat currency nor an absolute indicator of the level of inflation in an economy.

Sometimes however it’s important to figure out if the “platform” you’re taking your measurement from isn’t actually what’s moving, rather than the thing you’re trying to measure. If you’re going to step outside of the fiat viewpoint, gold is where I’d usually start.

Maybe a VIX-adjusted price of gold or something like that could be useful to smooth it out.