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Comment by dingleberry | Hacker News Reader

can the US confiscate the oil?

What a mad phantasy... Undermining your closest allies' economy to win the war?

And, no, it cannot confiscate the oil and, even if it would, most of the energy comes to Europe in the form of natural gas, which is moved by pipeline. So, yes, the US can stop that by bombing Austria or Poland.

It's obviously a bad place to be in, strategically, for Europe to be somewhat reliant on Russian fuels. But you should note that current sanctions are already far more costly for EU countries than for the US: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/f/2/csm_mi2022...

For Latvia, it's 64x more expensive. Even for Germany, it's factor 10.

And still all 3 Baltic states still agree that more significant measures must be imposed immediately, while most of the Western Europe is in denial.

Nobody is denying anything, except people claiming these are easy decisions to make and some approach a totally obvious choice. Finland & Germany have changed more drastically than either one has ever before, and more than anyone else in this situation. The Baltic states can also take a 20 % hit to GDP and they'll be fine, because they make up a small fraction of EU GDP and it would be easy (and right) to help them. The same happening in France, Germany, or Italy will not only hurt citizen in those countries, which would be uncomfortable but not disastrous. It would likely shut down every manufacturing on the continent that's more complicated than fish & chips.

And that’s exactly why humankind is forever bound to repeat the same mistakes over and over. We have all the information in the world and yet politicians still think that this time is different and you can appease dictators and they’ll just stop. But once they do realize, it’s already too late and it ends up costing many magnitudes more.

It’s always about choosing short term gain over long term thinking. Can’t wait to see when global warming really starts to hurt.

Nobody is appeasing anyone. They are trying to keep the lights on while everyone scrambles to find other sources of energy. These are the largest sanctions ever, already, oil and gas are on track to be included within six months, they have been impounding yachts left and right, delivering offensive weapons on previously unknown scales, etc.

Would the US actually overtly bomb one of these countries? Or just support domestic malcontents to bomb the pipelines?

On what grounds? And how exactly would that work? Through piracy in international waters? Or will the US liberate ports in Russia, Latvia or the Netherlands?

They’ve done that with Venezuela. Like capturing a tanker going from Iran to Venezuela, even though they theoretically should be able to trade.

It’s not piracy if Congress issues a letter of marquee, a power specifically enshrined in section 8 of article 1 of the Constitution.

Just like it's not an invasion if the President of the Russian Federation calls it a special military operation?

It's piracy, just US sponsored.

US sanctions usually work by denying violators access to US dollar flow, US customers, or just punitive taxes on US operations.

So even if they can’t go and grab the oil, they could force the issue: you buy this pretend-not-Russian oil, very well, next time someone pay you in dollars, we take a 75% cut.

But in the current climate, they would like to agree that ahead of time with Europeans who are right now dependant on Russia hydrocarbons for dear life.

Sounds like an easy way for Europeans to get rid of the dollar as a world currency - they would just doing business with third parties in Euros then. Which would have catastrophic consequences on the US economy.

The dollar is so engrained in the world economy, it’s a pipe dream. Makes me giggle whenever people ask if the hegemony of the dollar is over. No.

The only thing the US is going to achieve is finally putting a wooden stake through the heart of the dollar as the default world trading currency.

Now that the world has witnessed them using the dollar as a weapon to deny other countries their sovereignity, they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system.

And a good day it will be too.

The US hasn't figured out that cancel culture on twitter doesn't scale up to nation-states very well. 'Go build your own twitter' is now becoming 'Go build your own international banking interchange' to powers who are very excited to have that exact opportunity.

Oh yes, what a great day to have the default international fiat currency to be control by the likes of China.

So far China hasn't shown a penchant for destabilizing foreign countries for its own ends. Sure, they brutally oppress their own citizens but their foreign policy outside of border disputes has been non-interventionist.

You need to bone up on your history of China bud: Tibet, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia were all direct interventions by China.

Have you heard of the Sprately islands?

But I thought competition is good and leads to a better outcome for customers?

What competition? If India and China align, we'll be dependent upon their currency.

You do realize that India and China have been locked in a bitter border dispute for decades, right? One that periodically results in casualties on both sides? The idea that China and India are going to meaningfully align can only come from wilful ignorance. Or perhaps the You are either with us or against us binary thinking has become pervasive.

You do realize was replying to a hypothetical "they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system"

You could argue that it would be a very good thing to have currency competition. In that sense it would increase possible efficiencies, and reduce the need for America to be the world police. If you believe this, then what is going on is good for future stability.

If Ukraine will won a case in a USA court, then Russian oil can be confiscated by USA government (for USA government).

they sure can try and if they do .... consequences

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