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Comment by j00 | Hacker News Reader

If one assumes the current trend [1] of the last 13 years, Germany should be at 84% in 2035 by simply not slowing down the transition. So honestly not overly ambitious

[1] https://energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm?...

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Contrary to popular belief and assumptions in many papers, adoption of a technology doesn’t follow an exponential curve but often follows an s curve and we can reasonably assume that Germany is in the spot where growth accelerates at the strongest. Massive efforts might be needed to not see the growth rate of the transition to slow down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00863-0.epdf?shar...

I think the last 2-3 years it has somewhat stagnated (for example [1]), driven by conservative politicians fishing for votes with NIMBY policies (while at the same time increasing dependence on Russian imports). Hopefully the new government can pick it back up, though.

[1] https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-build-no-new-of...

I don't know of it was NIMBYism, but a few years ago the relatively simple feed in tariff system was replaced by a kind of a bidding system designed to allow new capacity addition to the most efficient producer. But by design they tried to limit the amount of new capacity added. Honestly I don't know all the details, but it's not very far fetched that there was a fair bit of politics involved, and protection of interests of a lot of non renewable energy producers.

Some details here https://m.dw.com/en/german-cabinet-puts-brakes-on-clean-ener...

A big NIMBY-issue is Bavaria (and others) famously blocking addition of above-ground north/south transmission capacity, causing expensive buried cables across farmlands and forests.

Even without politics it would have slowed in the last 2 years due to shortages.

The target as mentioned in the article is 100%, which the FDP (libertarians) want to water down to 80%.

Given your projection, I don't wonder why

The FDP is not libertarian by any measure. Much like the CDU they claim the social market economy of Germany as one of their achievements, which would be called outright socialist in some American circles. From an American perspective they can be compared with the Democrats in the US. Of course the whole political spectrum of America is further right than that of Germany.

I would hardly call the FDP libertarian.

So neither liberals nor libertarian. What are they then?

Conservatives for the rich with a modicum of backbone to appeal to people who wouldn't vote for corruption scandal parties like CDU but Christian Linder seems to be losing his backbone as well.

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