- One thing that I've picked up from a number of sources that isn't mentioned in the article, is that millennials entering the home buying phase of their lives as being a big reason why housing was primed to pop between 2020-2024. Basically demographics have played a huge part in this boom. - Most mortgages are actually in good shape from a paper perspective [1] - Most mortgages are 30-yr compared to the crazy ARM instruments [2]
My theory is that home prices will NOT drop, like in 2008, but rather will stabilize. Three reasons why: 1. Milliennials will keep overall demand up 2. Homebuilders will slow down on producing new inventory, and we're already at all time lows for inventory 3. Existing homeowners will be hesitant to sell because most are locked into a 30-yr with most likely a sub 2-3% mortgate
All of that, in theory, will result in less overall supply which will keep prices stable
[1] https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami/status/15084587889693450...
[2] https://twitter.com/lenkiefer/status/1507870733615214598