David Friedberg on All In Podcast went into this topic quite a bit. (His bona fides: ex Monsanto Exec, active founder/investor in food/ag space, previously founded climate.com).

Prediction was 200-300m people facing starvation due to the food shortages. Fertilizer input costs being the major driver, with decline in wheat exports also being an important factor.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e72-impact-of-sanction...