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Comment by x3sphere | Hacker News Reader

It hasn’t started cooling yet here in AZ, still seeing properties going for over list and prices are still climbing.

That said I see interest rates are now approaching 5% so have to imagine it might pull back some soon, really depends on the supply though.

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It’s starting to cool in Vegas where I’m seeing multiple properties that OpenDoor attempted to flip sit on the market for weeks on end with multiple rounds of price cuts.

I’m not sure what open door is but I’ve been eyeing that market and it seems listings are either pending in 24-48 hours or they stay listed for a good while. Weird time to be home shopping.

Rates rising limit supply initially. Why sell your house if you just refinanced and locked in a much lower rate than you'd get on a new place.

Doesn't seem to be the case where I am (NZ). The official cash rate here has gone from 0.25 to 1.00 since August last year. In my city, there are now almost 2-3x times as many residential homes on the market as there were this time last year (when the market was booming). Stock is building up as time-to-sell goes through the roof. Things are getting very interesting.

Come to the northeast where choice properties are easily going 40% over list. Homes that sold for 800k in 2017 are going for 1.9M right now.

I read numbers like that and I think, "Sure glad I'm not the one who'll be holding the bag on that." But then...I might be. I'm not sure. Someone's going to be making good on the money that disappears when the greater fool mails his keys back to the bank. Will it be the standard idiots Fannie, Freddy, Deutsche Bank, and whoever pulls the short straw at the NY Fed annual picnic?

You probably are the one holding the bag. Prices are exploding because mortgage rates are being held below the rate of inflation. In this scenario, it makes sense to borrow as much money as you possibly can and buy hard assets with it, because your mortgage is essentially a transfer of wealth from the bank to you. Normally banks would be the bagholders in this scenario, but because of securitization, they just package off the mortgage and sell it on the MBS market. The biggest buyer of MBS's lately has been the Fed, which they do with money newly injected into the market. The effect of this money creation is the inflation we've seen over the last 2 years, so effectively this has been a transfer of wealth from savers and anyone whose income is denominated in cash, to buyers and to some extent sellers of homes.

I’m not sure either and neither are real estate agents. My contacts there are thought we’d see a flat at best market this year. But here we are - biggest jump yet. Spoke with a notary a few days ago that said they’ve never been busier. People locking in low rates.

But to me it seems like it’s going to cool fast. Rates going up. Fine if you’re long term.

I went to view a house a few weeks ago listed at 1.25 and that seemed high. I asked my real stir if 1.6 gets it done and she said I doubt it - need 1.75. Heard (not published yet) a rumor it went for 1.835.

Anecdotal but something seems broke. Saying that I just took out a line of credit for a few hundred thousand.

> "Sure glad I'm not the one who'll be holding the bag on that." But then...I might be. I'm not sure.

That's a simple one to answer. Are you a taxpayer?

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