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You're totally right. However, the study you link does not discuss mortality while taking overdiagnosis into account from what I can tell. Other studies (first one I found: https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.11110210 ) can't confirm a significant reduction in mortality.

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Yeah I just linked that study because it was looking at QALY which is an aggregate metric so it should in some sense take into account the effects of overdiagnosis even if overdiagnosis is not explicitly handled.

Here is another study looking at all-cause mortality, which again does implicitly handle overdiagnosis. https://www.ajronline.org/doi/full/10.2214/AJR.14.12666

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