For example, early on in the invasion, we saw pictures of new highway signs, where the directions to different cities had been replaced with (in Russian), "Fuck Off", "Also Fuck Off", and "Fuck Off Back to Russia." Or, when a brewery switched to creating Molotov cocktails, they had already printed labels, with fun graphic design, an the title "Putin is a dickhead." That wasn't spontaneous. They had an entire portfolio of stuff like that, which they'd been planning for years.
Absolutely genius preparation by Ukraine.
Tsar Nicholas starts an imperial war of aggression with Japan to obtain a warm-water port, while the Japanese Navy (supplied with last-generation ships from the British Navy) surprises the world and proves to be able to fight the Russians on the world stage.
Turns out that those old British ships were still pretty good, and the Japanese have learned how to use Western guns and tactics by the early 1900s (despite being a Samurai/Sword society just 40 years prior).
Ukraine isn't that big and isn't developing like that right now and the Russian motivation is very different.
Russia expanded eastward. Japan expanded westward.
You're right that Japan ultimately was the one who started the attack though. But I'm also looking at Russia's expansion to seek a warm-water port on the Pacific Ocean and connect it up with the Tran-Siberian railway.
Russia definitely was encroaching upon the East. But Japan also was encroaching upon the West, with the 1890s Sino-Japanese War. Soooooo... both are kind of imperialistic assholes on this event, now that I think of it.
Russia has been conducting a proxy war in Ukraine for years, trying to inspire ethnic Russians to revolt against their supposed Ukrainian oppressors. That ploy turned into a quagmire because even ethic Russians in Ukraine don't want to live under Russian control.
Russia is doomed in this fight. They've only secured about 20% of Eastern Ukraine, exposing the rot in the heart of the Russian military in the process. If they ever get as far as Western Ukraine, where they will face desperate ethnic Ukrainians armed to the teeth with advanced weapons, supported by supply lines to the Western world and informed by real time surveillance the Russians can only dream of, the Russian body count will be staggering; far beyond any level Putin can conceal or survive politically.
The awful truth is that this ends only after enough Russian men have been fed into the meat grinder and Putin is deposed. For Putin it's win or fall, and winning clearly isn't feasible.
To destroy large swaths of Ukraine, Russia needs to march its artillery, be it MLRS systems or 162mm Howitzers, within firing range of city areas. The Ukrainian forces have largely repelled these advances.
MLRS systems and 162mm Howitzers "only" have 30km range or so. Sure, Russia has longer-range systems, but they're clearly trying to get these cheaper artillery systems within firing range of Kyiv (and other cities).
The Ukrainians have pushed back and have stalled the progress. Keeping those systems at least 50km away from the Kyiv center will prevent the worst of attacks that Russia can afford to launch.
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Given what Russia is doing to Mariupol, its clear that they don't mind razing entire cities to the ground with these kinds of artillery strikes. The key for the Ukrainians moving forward are to keep the Russian line away from artillery strike range.
A NATO assessment last week concluded that Russia has already expended nearly all of the missiles (Kalibr cruise missiles and Iskander ballistic missiles) they had staged for the invasion. Since then they've used a couple hypersonic missiles, but those are fabulously expensive and thus not available in quantity. Russia won't be blowing up Soviet era apartment blocks with hundreds of those.
So yes, I think you are correct; if they're going to continue the missile attacks they'll need to use up Russia's reserve munitions. Otherwise, as you say, they have to turn to artillery.
Turns out Ukraine is pretty effective at artillery duels. The blasted Russian armor we see isn't all down to Javelins and NLAWs; they're directing artillery with UAVs to great effect.
Bottom line is, short of turning to nukes, Putin can't actually rubbleize all of Ukraine without a epic number of Russia casualties. They just don't have the munitions.
While estimates vary, I’ve seen none that indicates Russia isn't experiencing mind-boggling casualties for the major power in a modern major-power-on-one-side war as it is.
The US estimate put it at a large fraction of the total official Soviet losses over the whole decade-long campaign in Afghanistan that was sometimes referred to as the USSR’s Afghanistan and major contributor to the collapse of the regime, the Ukraine MOD estimates put it well over the Soviet Afghanistan toll.)
This is just getting started.
Many things described as modern “proxy wars” between major powers have been direct wars between a major power and an ally of an opposed major power (and many have involved direct conflict between major powers, though usually with at least one major power having deniability.) This was true of several of the major USA/USSR “proxy” conflicts (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan).
That plus not getting strong air supremacy.
You can avoid them flying low, but then you fall into the killing envelope of shoulder mounted anti-air weapons, which Ukraine also happens to have many.
Hell they’ve got a sizeable amount of the western front of Russia’s army surrounded and set for a strategic rout.
Rout == uncoordinated retreat, which seems to be happening on a regular basis right now. Russian morale is really, really bad.
Surrounded / Encirclement might really be happening. Its hard to tell for sure due to the fog of war, it could just be Ukrainian propaganda, but there's so much discussion about a Ukrainian counter-push in various parts of the country.
Rout == enemy escapes, with heavy losses due to disorganization. Its a win, but not as much of a win as "Surrounded/Encirlcement", which basically is a "surrender or die" situation.
Its clear that the Russians were trying to encircle Kyiv (and Mariupol with more success). But there seems to be whispers that the Ukrainians are successfully surrounding / encircling some Russian troops.