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Comment by sanp | Hacker News Reader

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel.

On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO.

Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model Lexus) vs $59K (base model). Include $7500 Fed Credit this comes to ~$56K (assuming a 35% marginal tax rate) Average miles per year: 12K. So fuel savings of ~$720 Even assuming a very generous cost of capital even TCO over 2 years beats ICE. That's before maintenance costs (which seem to be lower for EV).

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TCOs for individual consumers will be vastly different depending on the parameters of the situation, with particular impact driven by volume of miles driven annually.

Due to this, commercial fleets in my view have a much clearer picture here than personal vehicle decisions. This is also particularly driven by personal vehicle purchases being driven less by “TCO” in a strict sense but rather “what is my monthly payment”.

That’s fair. TCO decisions are probably more relevant in a commercial context.

A tesla won't get the tax credit any more (they've sold too many cars). Unless that's changed with one of the covid packages.

Doubt it. Whenever EVs have been mentioned, it has been specifically about union shops. Tesla does not have a union so they are evil.

In what world is the maintenance cost for a fleet of EV busses going to be less than that of a diesel? There are two orders of magnitude more diesel mechanics than people qualified to work on EV drivetrains.

I think the argument is that EVs will require vastly less maintenance, which makes sense on paper. I'm not sure how well that will bear out in the near to mid term, though, as these are new designs which haven't been put through the paces yet.

It's a pretty big transportation sector we're talking about (half a million of these buses in the US), so it will not be a fast transition and early adopters will be paying higher costs than later ones to iron out the kinks. Most districts are probably waiting for someone else to try it out first.

There's far less going on in a normal EV drivetrain, which kinda supports the lower maintenance cost.

Fewer fluids required, just your differential and some coolant for the motors really.

Given the specialization of parts, it's far more likely that any performed maintenance is going to be more of a swap for known-good parts and sending them off to the home-office for reconditioning.

>I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations

I guess, but a "premium" Model Y doesn't have any features that a far lesser ICE doesn't have, with inferior build quality. That's kind of the point. A premium Honda, VW or Toyota SUV are better comparisons, and substantially cheaper. Of course, that makes the TCO much more competitive...

We can compare these ICEs to a Mach-e or an ID.4 or an Ioniq 5. Build quality on these is pretty comparable to premium ICE models from these manufactures.

Tax credits are dollar for dollar reduction in taxes owed. There's no reason to apply a marginal tax rate.

Not sure I follow. The effective benefit of this tax break is different based on your tax bracket. So, we should be using the marginal tax rate.

I guess you have shown that in the luxury segment the TCO comes out better for EVs. Many people are not buying $50k+ luxury vehicles. Care to run an estimate for something like what I was buying a year ago? I was in the market for a loaded 5 year old vehicle with 60-80k miles for $10-13k (Dodge Dart for example, also liked a few Ford Fusion options). There were options like this available, though I happened to stumble upon the apocryphal 13 year old 175k miles $1,000 Honda and went with that.

When I leased our Bolt, the retail price was $23K. Costs me 1.7 cents a mile in fueling costs. It is a good bit nicer than an 80K Dodge Dart, of course, but it's a data point. I also have time-of-use rates, which helps.

Anyway. Assuming 27 mpg for the Dart (this is what Fuelly says average Dart owners experience) and $4.67 gasoline (the US average from a few days ago), should cost around 17 cents a mile in gasoline. Assuming an average of 14.8 cents per kWh (the US average from February) and 3 miles per kWh (somewhat conservative, but close enough) for the Bolt, you'd be looking at 5 cents per mile in electricity.

Not a perfect comparison, the Bolt would be brand new with a warranty, etc, but at least it's not a luxury EV comparison, just an appliance car like a Dart. You'd break even on costs at 76K miles.

Of course, at that point the Bolt has just reached the mileage the Dart started at, and so it will quickly pull ahead in TCO. If you do a lot of road trips you might not like it, but if you primarily drive in the city you will really like not having to stop once a week to get gas.

How many Diesel repair shops are there vs. heavy duty EV vehicle repair shops?

Plenty, according to the presentation linked elsewhere in this discussion.

Cummins (the major manufacturer of engines, generators etc) will service the high voltage parts of the bus.

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