I think Windows did well in the last year due to its strength in the WFH/education market and the convertible laptop market. If we look at stats from the last year we might think that traditional desktop PCs have a bright future but this is ignoring the broader picture. People are buying Windows PCs to do stuff like using desktop office applications that Microsoft seems to want to replace with rewritten web versions in the long run.

Windows faces a rock and a hard place sort of situation with its x86_64 dependence. It’s a long term liability but a transition to ARM or whatever would remove much of the competitive advantage Windows has. It’s solution to complete with Apple and it’s ARM convergence is to emulate ARM + Android and offer ARM windows alongside x86 windows which is a bit half-assed and disjointed.

Windows is also losing its software moat more and more every year regardless of what it does.

I mean, I think you can make a case for the future of WindowsNT but moves like the record levels of adware in Windows to me project a lack of confidence in the long term future of Windows given the indifference to poisoning the platform. It doesn’t make me go “Wow Microsoft is out to prove the haters wrong who underestimate the benefits of WinNT!”

You have linked to the desktop market. Yes there rules MS, but the desktop market is being destroyed by the phone market where MS doesn't even have an offer.