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Flash -> html5HTML5 is definitely not simpler than Flash was. I'd argue, it's far more complex, if you include all the sub-technologies and frameworks required to reach feature parity.
There was also no "natural" progression from Flash to HTML5. Oracle and the browser vendors had to run an involved depreciation campaign to get developers off flash and move them to HTML5. If you had left the web ecosystem on it's own, my guess is, we'd still be writing flash applications today.
> Perforce, svn, mercurial -> git
This progression was definitely natural, but I doubt again that git is less complex than svn or mercurial. However, one big advantage of git is that it is extremely easy to set up: You can just install it and use it locally without bothering any admins or setting up any servers. Once you are already using it, it's also easy to connect your repo to a server.
So, I'd argue, git has better UX and better availability than the alternatives, but it's not necessarily simpler.