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Comment by blunte | Hacker News Reader

My summary of TFA:

Putin made a grave mistake and cannot win without China’s direct assistance.

Putin’s actions have strengthened US stature and position globally, as well as illustrating the importance of NATO. This presumably is exactly the opposite of what Putin desired.

China could gain influence and power by helping Russia, but at the cost of international relations. More importantly, it would still be a gamble.

Without China’s help, Putin will fail one way or another.

China could instead stand with the rest of the world. This would more quickly end the current conflict, and it would make China a more significant international partner. This is the better option.

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But China plays a long game. Let's say Putin would fall, turmoil would ensue, and something close to some kind of democratic or at least autocratic government would emerge. Maybe a kind of soft mix of current Turkey + Hungary, still with some Soviet undertones, but that would get Russia close to Europe. That would mean the end of any China future ambitions for the next 50 years.

China build the biggest Navy in the world and for sure not for beautiful parades. To achieve their objectives and keep the current Communist elite in power making money, ( they are not different from the Oligarchs) they need Russia natural resources and a fellow authoritarian in power. China will support Russia.

Not if they judge that Russia will squander their support and lose all the same.

Chinese military is in dire need of combat experience. The few missions in Africa in which they deploy troops aren't enough.

> But China plays a long game.

With Xi in power, I don't feel that they play the long game anymore, or invading Taiwan in the near future wouldn't be in the works. That was only true when it was rule by committee, which is no longer the case. Maybe if Jiang Zemin is ever successful in his assassination attempts there's a chance for China to revert back to CCP committee style rule but I still have doubts. Jiang would still make a better leader than Xi though.

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