Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice | Hacker News Reader

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice

uscnpm.org

58 pointsguard0g34 comments

My summary of TFA:

Putin made a grave mistake and cannot win without China’s direct assistance.

Putin’s actions have strengthened US stature and position globally, as well as illustrating the importance of NATO. This presumably is exactly the opposite of what Putin desired.

China could gain influence and power by helping Russia, but at the cost of international relations. More importantly, it would still be a gamble.

Without China’s help, Putin will fail one way or another.

China could instead stand with the rest of the world. This would more quickly end the current conflict, and it would make China a more significant international partner. This is the better option.

But China plays a long game. Let's say Putin would fall, turmoil would ensue, and something close to some kind of democratic or at least autocratic government would emerge. Maybe a kind of soft mix of current Turkey + Hungary, still with some Soviet undertones, but that would get Russia close to Europe. That would mean the end of any China future ambitions for the next 50 years.

China build the biggest Navy in the world and for sure not for beautiful parades. To achieve their objectives and keep the current Communist elite in power making money, ( they are not different from the Oligarchs) they need Russia natural resources and a fellow authoritarian in power. China will support Russia.

Not if they judge that Russia will squander their support and lose all the same.

Chinese military is in dire need of combat experience. The few missions in Africa in which they deploy troops aren't enough.

> But China plays a long game.

With Xi in power, I don't feel that they play the long game anymore, or invading Taiwan in the near future wouldn't be in the works. That was only true when it was rule by committee, which is no longer the case. Maybe if Jiang Zemin is ever successful in his assassination attempts there's a chance for China to revert back to CCP committee style rule but I still have doubts. Jiang would still make a better leader than Xi though.

This piece is getting a lot of attention on western blob sphere because it's "China's Chernobyl" tier fantasy thinking analysis by one of the few pro-west voices in PRC analysis circles. Obviously the piece got censored right away. Like Ren Zhiqiang / Cai Xia, former got purged, latter had to escape to west and now works for lol Hudson Institute copypasting neolib positions. Important to note unlike west where blob expertise i.e. think tank / NGOs has much larger impact on actual policy than in PRC where there's parallel set of internal CCP expertise to draw from. Recent interviews from western China-hands who still have some connection with PRC counterparts (i.e. track 1.5/2/3 diplomacy) after two years of muted people-to-people contact due to covid travel have overwhelming concluded PRC decision makers are hardened their stance that US after Trump/Biden is systematically incapable of being light on PRC again. There's no hope for rapprochement. Hu's analysis that turns every dice roll wildly pro-west certainly won't reach politburo and if it did, his concluding line will certainly elicit a chuckle:

> As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

Believing PRC should (and can) improve relations with US is medically retarded at this point. Let alone "surely win international praise". And to do so freely without any concessions in return knowing full well a contained RU means PRC is next on the chopping block. If West want PRC's help, start by lifting tariffs, removing sanctions, selling EUV machines, stop arming TW. The fact that US has continued pressure on PRC over TW, EU still jerks about IndoPac, while having talks with sanctioned countries like VZ to release oil means there's no point adopting "mainstream" / west position that's actually not mainstream considering more than half world's population are sitting out (including most of ASEAN). Currently PRC has no interest picking sides, and if it had to, it would pick turning east Europe into a prolonged quagmire behind the scenes because EU foreign policy was shifting anti PRC pre UKR anyway. If UKR is the start of a "world [that] is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century", PRC would opt for changes that makes LIO weaker not stronger.

> Currently PRC has no interest picking sides

This isn't true given what's on state media. It's like saying the US is neutral. I don't believe there are any neutral sides at this point if we're being honest.

State media is picking RU/PRC narrative because that's PRC side, no way PRC endorse NATO / US narrative. IMO PRC/India/Brazil etc, countries that are abstaining and not condemning while trying to maintain ongoing commercial ties are more or less neutral. Not neutral would be actively sanctioning and aiding one side with weapons / intel, like US and NATO. I'm sure deep down PRC wants RU to succeed, but it's not putting finger and actively tipping any scales yet.

> I'm sure deep down PRC wants RU to succeed, but it's not putting finger and actively tipping any scales yet.

You’re being disingenuous. It is actively helping Russia economically and with the PR war.

> State media is picking RU/PRC narrative because that's PRC side

Hence, the PRC is publicly stating that they aren’t neutral. It’s state media, and not independent media.

> Not neutral would be actively sanctioning and aiding one side with weapons / intel, like US and NATO.

No, that means you’re inline with the West’s agenda. I’m pretty sure the PRC is helping Russia economically, and not everything is public. That is also not neutral vs say opportunists like India.

And you're being obtuse, PRC helping itself by undermining US and not falling in line with west Agenda is not picking RU side even if RU incidentally benefits. Of course PRC state media isn't neutral, it's on PRC side and it'll magnify whatever info to make US look bad, as is customary. It's comparable behaviour as other neutral countries not picking sides. Picking sides is direct military aid and either sanctioning or providing tangible economic support beyond what is typical. Right now PRC is trying to maintain normal trade relationships that west is trying to disrupt while exploiting trade opportunities like other neutral parties.

> Of course PRC state media isn't neutral

It’s ironic that you’re accusing me of being obtuse. In China, the media is the state and the state is the media. They are the same entity. Consequently, the PRC is not neutral.

I assume that behind the scenes, negotiations are probably happening, and such negotiations probably involve the payment of money's or other considerations for China to take one or other position...

For example, Russia might say "we will sell you oil at 10% below market rate for the next 50 years if you join the war on our side".

When the west fully embargoes Russian oil, China will be buying it for whatever discount it wants!

Thought they already are and to be settled in Euros and not the petrodollar.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-...

I doubt in modern times leaders of any country think so long term. Most seem concerned with only their current reign (or in the case of more “capitalistic” countries like US, just one or two election cycles.

China definitely does.

Yes, China may even think the most long term of current governments.

I'm doubtful that russia has anything they can offer to china to make it worth it. Not to mention future promises mean nothing if putin gets ousted.

Future promises normally are kept by future governments. Sovereign bonds are exactly that.

Also, Russia could offer land. Or exclusivity rights to resources.

Normally. This is not a normal situation though. A future russian government will likely have to offer something to rebuild trust and make the western nations comfortable with dropping the sanctions. Making a radical break with the current system, including dropping commitments seems like it could be expected.

That is, if Russia survives this as a state. There was already a map floating around on social media of Russia's various (semi-)autonomous provinces that could use this opportunity to lobby for independence.

(Disclaimer: not a geostrategist)

Daily reminder that social media is just what a bunch of people think. It’s not to be confused with actual political thinking or decision making by actual policymakers nor representatives in official government business. Not until twitter actually declares national sovereignty and fights and wins it.

Russia defaulted on sovereign debt less than 30 years ago.

Russia, a giant country with a ton of natural resources. China, a giant population that needs a ton of natural resources.

This is not a tough one to figure out.

"Worth it" is the key point. Its not that they have nothing of value, its that the cost outweighs the benefit.

The cost is becoming extreme, it seems unlikely that russian pride would allow them to become full on sattelite state, and lots of countries have natural resources.

I've always wondered what the possibility of China just annexing Russian Siberia in the event their nuclear command is disrupted from civil war or whatever. You can't just have two autocratic superpowers sharing borders without some type of friction

I read the whole piece and my take-away was - China, being very self-interested, will drop Putin at the first sign he's really losing. They need to decide fast and are very split, but it will happen sometime within the next two weeks.

To be more precise, the analysis suggests it’s optimal for it to happen within in the next two weeks. They could remain indecisive.

Using 2018 Statistics, The United States + EU + ASEAN + Japan represent 49% of China trading, Russia only 2%.

The Partners above represent 53% of China exports and Russia only 1,9%.

Even taking into account that other strategic considerations will of course guide China decisions, it is once more, another major strategic error on the part of the EU and the US not to use this as leverage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...

The article comes right out and says that Putin’s effort is a failure, short and long term. Only direct help from China could possibly change that outcome (and that involvement is presented as the less wise position for China to take regarding its self interest).

It would be interesting if someone could link to more policy discussions that happen China! Drop them here!

CSIS: What’s Next for the China-Russia Relationship? https://youtu.be/bb2Em3SqeFM

>1 hour

TL;DR a delicate balance between supporting its junior partner and its own interests

The Blitzkrieg has become a quagmire. Had the Blitzkrieg succeeded, Vlad would have been able to present a fait accompli to the world, endure some more years of sanctions and the world would move on.

Pretty much what he pulled off in Chechnya, North Ossetia, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

Here we see the Chinese seeing the West has firmly turned against Putin and that China will be better off disavowing themselves from Putin.

The article impresses me as a dispassionate summary of the possible outcomes.

If you see the chinese yuan dropping in coming days, that's your sign....

8 is lucky in Chinese numerology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Eight

4+4 = 8

"4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West."

"4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. "

I think it is in China's best interests to set Putin aside and let peace and trade flow again. Ukraine goes free and democratic and Russian can make it's own way.

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