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Comment by londons_explore | Hacker News Reader

I assume that behind the scenes, negotiations are probably happening, and such negotiations probably involve the payment of money's or other considerations for China to take one or other position...

For example, Russia might say "we will sell you oil at 10% below market rate for the next 50 years if you join the war on our side".

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When the west fully embargoes Russian oil, China will be buying it for whatever discount it wants!

Thought they already are and to be settled in Euros and not the petrodollar.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-...

I'm doubtful that russia has anything they can offer to china to make it worth it. Not to mention future promises mean nothing if putin gets ousted.

Future promises normally are kept by future governments. Sovereign bonds are exactly that.

Also, Russia could offer land. Or exclusivity rights to resources.

Normally. This is not a normal situation though. A future russian government will likely have to offer something to rebuild trust and make the western nations comfortable with dropping the sanctions. Making a radical break with the current system, including dropping commitments seems like it could be expected.

That is, if Russia survives this as a state. There was already a map floating around on social media of Russia's various (semi-)autonomous provinces that could use this opportunity to lobby for independence.

(Disclaimer: not a geostrategist)

Daily reminder that social media is just what a bunch of people think. It’s not to be confused with actual political thinking or decision making by actual policymakers nor representatives in official government business. Not until twitter actually declares national sovereignty and fights and wins it.

Russia defaulted on sovereign debt less than 30 years ago.

Russia, a giant country with a ton of natural resources. China, a giant population that needs a ton of natural resources.

This is not a tough one to figure out.

"Worth it" is the key point. Its not that they have nothing of value, its that the cost outweighs the benefit.

The cost is becoming extreme, it seems unlikely that russian pride would allow them to become full on sattelite state, and lots of countries have natural resources.

I doubt in modern times leaders of any country think so long term. Most seem concerned with only their current reign (or in the case of more “capitalistic” countries like US, just one or two election cycles.

China definitely does.

Yes, China may even think the most long term of current governments.

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