When the chickens come home to roost, they’re going to have to figure out who is going to replace the retired population, and nobody’s in a rush to immigrate to China.
Why replace anyone? The alternative is to ramp down to a lower population baseline and deal with the transition. 800M Chinese by 2100 is still plenty. Reality is right now there's 100s of million undereducated/undertrained Chinese who can't be integrated into modern economy - they're net drains. And even current system is struggling to employ millions of STEM graduates. PRC doesn't need immigration, just clamp down on top level brain drain and setup foreign worker program to take care of the aging - plenty of cheap ASEAN labour. Bonus side effect of less people = more self sufficiency and freedom to conduct assertive foreign policy. There's few upsides to maintaining and trying to increase living standards of 1.4B people with PRC resources.
The focus should be on improving the quality of life of the people, not on expanding the economy in absolute terms.
China would be better off with 1/2 the people at the same GDP (ie ~700m people at ~$24,000 per capita GDP).
Population contraction is desirable in many cases, so long as you can continue to increase productivity per capita. China has a long ways to go yet in terms of potential to raise their per capita economic output, if they're willing to pair that with a contracting population. And the lightening (from depopulation) on their resource needs is a huge help, it makes their situation so much easier.
Their productivity doesn't transform into a negative. To deal with more aged persons, they need to bolster output and taxation on that output, such that society builds a social safety net for the retired. China has room for increased taxation on various aspects of wealth and income in their nation (their wealth has ballooned massively in the last 10-20 years obviously), along with higher personal income tax rates in general.
Increasing productivity and automation frees labor to be devoted to other things that society needs. For example their farming system is very ineffecient, they have far too many people working in farming producing far too little (compare it to the US, South Korea or Japan). If you bring that up to where it should be, some of that labor becomes available to take care of the elderly, paid for via taxes. Now apply that to everything else in China that still needs modernized, made more efficient, automated.
Also automation may not play out so well for Chinese production, as it's more sensible for other nations to bring automated manufacturing onshore for a combination of reasons including reduced transport, supply chain certainty, stabler internal economics. Onshoring automated manufacturing could still use a significant amount of international remote labour, but the hosting country would capture more of the taxation from the manufacturing, which you mention as going to pay for the Chinese retirees.
China is dealing with their one child policy, they have put the cap at 3 children iirc currently, and are also making policies against things like abortion and divorce. Which may not be the correct move, but I do see more laws incentivizing children coming.
Do you have a source i can read about that? I'd be interested to know more about this.
It takes 20 years to make a 20 year old consumer while the rest of the population ages 20 years.
Seems a bit optimistic and wishy washy to say the least.
Interesting. You could be referring to several European countries, including the UK.
Also interesting: the Plague was largely responsible for the ending of serfdom, by greatly increasing the bargaining-power of peasants. I have wondered whether COVID might eventually precipitate similar tectonic social changes.
There are more people over the age of 65 in China than the total population of the UK and France combined.
Almost all want to flee/relocate Europe/US/Canada.
Turkey, Georgia, ... Come in after.
I literally saw 0 requests for China.
Also regardless of what Russian regime propoganda trying to sell we all grown on western culture and want to live in western world. People who wanted to live in Asia moved to Thailand / Vietnam / Bali long ago.