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That estimate seems wildly low given that the S&P 500 has returned about 10% a year since its inception 65 years ago.

Also from your link, Vanguard estimates about 2% annualized inflation over the next 10 years.

Annualized returns for the S&P from 2013-2021 was ~15% per year. For 2019-2021 the average was 24% per year.

The idea is that future returns will be lower because those some of those expected future "real" gains (i.e. gains from growth and dividends) are already reflected in the current price (i.e. speculative gains). That these recent years of high returns are due to speculation is clear from the abnormally high PE ratio.

Of course, Bogle has been saying stuff like this for awhile, so who knows. He was saying that future gains would be lower back in '17, and look where we are now.

If I cast the slide ruler over these numbers it suggests the period of time is decreasing, while the returns for said period are increasing. Thus the next values in the series are as follows;

Full year 2022 +33%, H1 2023 +42%, Q3 2023 +51%, August 2023 +60%, first 10 days of Sep 2023 +69%

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