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blibble·

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means

when will this be exactly?

Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels

and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports

their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

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Multilateral agreements as part of a peace settlement are their most likely way out of the economic pain they're in now—removal of sanctions and normalization of relations with the West part of the peace agreement. I agree that their long term prospects, having blundered so badly, are now dim, but I think if they can get the right concessions out of Ukraine they'll still have salvaged a lot of their immediate goals from launching the war (probably at far too high a cost for it to have been worth it, yes, but at least it won't be a complete failure) and be in a decent position to realize further expansion before the end of their fossil fuel fortunes arrives.

> their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

I'd like to think that if Russia fails to subjugate and absorb Ukraine then it will put an end to Russian dreams of restoring empire, for at least one generation and perhaps for longer. Recalling Zbigniew Brzeziński "It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire."

"Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports"

China will buy Russia's fossil fuels.

and as a monopsony they'll set the price

and mining in Siberia will be price competitive for max 15 years.

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