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Not quite. This is causing a relative risk of someone getting arrested in Russia, to create a minuscule chance that this person out of 150 million russians can make a difference in the public opinion, and the minuscule chance that a shift in public opinion in Russia can have any consequence at all on the war in Ukraine.

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It's more than a miniscule chance. And it's not just about the shift in public opinion. It's also about consuming the limited bandwidth that the Russian security services have available to deal with stuff like this.

Think of it like DDOS-ing their internal security apperatus.

I really don't think this is how you change a warmonger's mind. And it's anyway under the assumption that you get enough people to make it a DDOS level thing.

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