If the Russian people are so much against Putin and on the side of the West, then why not arrange them to all leave their apartments at the same time, to walk into their central squares, and to start shaking their keys -- as the Czechs did.
I'm talking about a million people standing outside and walking towards the Red Square, shaking their keys. If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever.
> If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever.
If you haven't seen this firsthand, then I understand.
But I have seen it firsthand. Here is how it went: in the 80's, when solidarity was rising up in Poland a relatively small minority drove the revolution, and found support in a large chunk of the younger generation and some in older people as well.
But the bulk of the Poles had seen it all before. Small uprisings that were brutally smacked down, with the local secret police making lists of people to raise from their beds in the inevitable crackdown. So they were advising their kids not to go to the Solidarity rallies, not to protest and so on. In some families this led to harsh words, and some families never really recovered.
Because that one time those kids and the people behind Solidarity were right, they prevailed. They managed to achieve critical mass. They showed that you too could be brave and on the right side of history, and live to tell the tale. And eventually, after the wall fell of course all those other people suffered from memory loss and they too had been present at probably every demonstration, instead of sitting quaking in their house about the kind of terrible thing those idiot youngsters were bringing down on their houses. But make no mistake: for all the same money the army would have opened fire on the protests. It wasn't a 'done deal' until it was and it could have very easily gone the other way, as it had so many times before.
And note that it was tried:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek
(I really don't like the title of that article) and even if you may see the death toll as 'acceptable' the fact is that those people died and if the same thing had happened in for instance Gdansk the death toll would have been a very large multiple of that. It may not have been enough to break the back of Solidarity, but that's not something we will ever know for sure.
If you've seen the kind of bravery in Russia in the last couple of years, regarding the murders of journalists, the jailing of opposition politicians and so on then you really have to keep a little bit of room for the cowards that were right every time so far, and who can not with all their fantasy see a million people march on the Kremlin. And by not being able to see it they indeed make it less likely. If it happens it should be massive. 2000 people will get arrested, a substantial multiple of that might get shot, and we're nowhere near the point where a million people would mobilize. But if and when they do, there will be a lot of blood flowing and at the end of it Putin will be gone. But they'd better bring something more potent than just their housekeys.
Well I don't know about passion. I've seen videos where there are a lot of people protesting but when the police come grab a girl, everyone just stands around watching and filming. When the police come running at a crowd, the crowd runs away and it fizzles out. There's none of the Maidan passion.
How? What would they do? They would march and riot and protest and then after a day or two they would go home. Meanwhile the politicians will just wait it out and the show will go on (see Belarus).
Especially if, say, a quarter of them were military and/or internal security personnel that came out with their gear.
Even the least democratic government relies on support of the people to function, but not even the most democratic (and certainly not Russia) depends on each person’s support equally.
What makes you think that? Do you think the Uyghurs of which there are millions in China should just walk out shaking their fucking keys?
If Putin loses the war he will lose power. He will no longer win the next election as he'll be seen as weak. So he can't change his mind and if people start a protest in Moscow it is in his interest to do everything he can to quell it.
Furthermore you say you have no sympathy for Russians if they can't manage to get a million people to walk out. So if there are only 10,000 people who are against Putin, they just have to suffer the consequences for the choices that the rest of them made?
I wish Russian people would then stop telling me all about how most Russians are against Putin and hate him, and then act completely helpless at the thought of doing anything about it. They are just empty words, then, because they're followed by plenty of excuses for inaction. My grandfather is spending another war hiding from bombs in a basement, but Russian people get to catch trains to Finland while telling us platitudes about how "most" of them are _so_ against Putin.
Meanwhile the West stands by wringing their hands and crying because 'there isn't anything they can do', when in reality they are just scared.
The best bet right now would be for some Russian faction near the seat of power to get rid of Putin once and for all. Of course the instability that would generate would be at least as dangerous as this war, if not more dangerous but it would also have the potential to improve things.
I won't say anything about your grandfather because anything I could say would sound meaningless.
EDIT: those are some good ideas. I definitely think we need to turn up the sanctions, so far Putin seems on the backfoot but he has increased the shelling of civilians, even agreed-upon evacuation points which is just straight up evil.
Putin will see his reasons for escalation wherever he wants, whatever will suit him, if that becomes the touchstone then we are already way across the line regardless of our fears. After all, we exist.
> Catching trains to Finland
When rumors about borders closing started to appear me and my GF had to grab clothes and medicine, enough to fit into baggage, book ANYTHING that flies from Russia within the next day. I had to leave all my savings that I've been saving up for years (banks stopped giving money), I had to leave a newly bought apartment, I had to leave my parents and grandparents that I may never see again.
Keep in mind that just having choices is a luxury.
Oh, and your dictator, your primary responsibility. Or do you blame the West for Putin?
And yet I don't like when people discount broken lifes of Russians who had to flee their country leaving everything behind. Both Ukranians and Russians are refugees in this case. One difference they may not experience is being afraid of passing strangers in a country they fled to.
So much suffering... Everything because of one crazy guy. As far as I've heard even most of Putin's generals were shocked by his decision to invade. I hope one of them can muster courage and get close enough...
Putin's generals have over the years been carefully winnowed down to a bunch of spineless bastards, it's clear that near a dictator of such power you will not find any credible competition, those are either in jail or six feet under. Interesting side effect, that also means that the really competent people have left or have been pensioned off.
And yet, those that are left are the only people with a credible shot at this. And the world - and their country - would likely love them for it, assuming they would live. Let's see which Russian fat cat grows a pair first. I think the touchstone will be when Putin gives the orders to deploy a nuke.
I.e. the current sanctions explicitly excluded natural gas etc. Russia supplies around 40% of the EU's gas, demand is around 2x as higher.
We could just wear coats, but we're not. We could also do something more about it, but we're not.
Sorry you had to leave your new apartment and have to figure out how to open a new bank account for your US salary. And I hope both of us get to see our families again.
The Russian protests were not 'completely ignored', it's just that all we can really do here is report on them.
> I guess he is our problem now
He always was. Now he is also Ukraine's problem (more so than in the recent past).
I'm saying there needs to be 1 or 2 million Muskovites that simply wake up on Sunday and collectively decide to walk down to the Red Square and shake their keys. This will send a message to Putin that there are a large number of Russians who are not happy with his actions.
As for protest, if you think there's a lot of military in Ukraine, wait and see how much military is in Russia. There's 400k "internal" army alone that is dedicated to fighting its own people. Putin has created this army after the Ukranian revolution so the same thing doesn't happen here.
In Belarus 95% of people were against Lukashenko and took to streets like wildfire after the rigged election a year ago, did it help? As long as he controls the military protests can only do so much.
Most succesful revolutions happened, when the military joined the protests. The military is made up of common people after all.
And it is hard to see through the fog of war from the distance - but my impression is, that the russian army fights very hesistant and with low morale and badly organized. And they are not welcomed as liberators. No matter the propaganda, they will come home one day and share their stories.
I wish you all the best, that you can return one day and manage till then.
If an average Russian is being brainwashed, for police it's much worse. They really think that people coming to protest are being paid by the "West" and show no mercy.
Anyone who supports opposition, like following someone in Instagram, is immediately fired.