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Comment by carrolldunham | Hacker News Reader

Getting tangential but I believe there many armchair people's perception of this war is that is is going slowly, taking longer than 'expected', fully because of this epoch's speed of news cycle. 'Things' now usually take one day, and are forgotten by the mid week. People who follow 'things' are bewildered that a 'thing' is still going that started last week. Something must be broken with it

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Both sanction-wise and publicity-wise an ongoing war is a catastrophe for Russia. Also, they invaded from three (!) sides and Kyiv is just about 100km from the border.

There's obviously some propaganda and a thick fog of war going on, but I think we can quite reasonably conclude that this is going far worse for Russia than anyone expected, including Russia.

This was supposed to be a layup for Russia (90% success) and it's looking like a coin flip (50%).

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-rus...

They made serious gains in 9 days and are encircling 3 of the 4 biggest cities.

It doesn't seem to be going that bad as some would make you believe.

In comparison, took poland a month to fall from germany and ussr combined with much larger armies on both sides.

I don't think that's the case, we have just come out of a pandemic that lasted 2 years. But we also saw Kabul and Afghanistan fall to the Taliban in a day and the Crimea annexation was so quick. There is also the fact that we all thought the Russian Army was a well oiled machine of war. That's why most people are shocked it wasn't an overnight victory, the disparity in power was obvious from the start, that this is day 9 and whilst they are closer to the capital they have suffered heavy, heavy losses. And their tactics and equipment have been shown to be poor, that's even without including their logistics which have been terrible.

> we have just come out of a pandemic that lasted 2 years.

Not really; the most recent wave is subsiding and we’ve (as a nation, not all of us as individuals) just decided we don't care anymore.

Would love to know which nation _we_ are ...

Unless you're Chinese, would like to know what nation you're in that isn't covered by that statement.

I see it differently. From the outset the only realistic solution was vaccination. We have that now, I can't live my life in quarantine, so I get vaccinated and get on with my life.

>There is also the fact that we all thought the Russian Army was a well oiled machine of war.

that's what you've been told at the time when it was required for you to think so, in particular during Trump's presidency due to his stance on NATO.

today you are required to think that Russia is getting its ass kicked, and tomorrow you'll be required to think that Russia must be nuked or else Europe will fall, and the expert opinion will once again change to reflect that.

But we've always been at war with oceania.

You must think I am 18/20 years old or something. It may surprise you to know that I remember times before Trump was president. And there wasn't social media to 'guide' my thinking.

> But we also saw Kabul and Afghanistan fall to the Taliban in a day

Kabul might have fallen in a day but the process of the Taliban gaining control over Afghanistan took significantly longer than a day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan_conflict_(1978%E2%...

This map shows dates on which various cities fell under the control of the Taliban and there are dates going back into June and July ...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/2021_Tal...

Was there any real coordinated resistance in Afghanistan, though?

Russian warplans have been recovered from captured vehicles: the document, if authentic, lays out a 2 week plan for completion of the entire war.

Here is a Forbes (yeah, I know) article on these captured plans: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/03/03/alle...

There was a leaked pre-written article for some Russian rag that details the "new world" with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine spearheading it together, united.

Safe to say things did not go according to plan.

What made you think a war was a good catalyst for a "kids these days" comment?

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