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Comment by rr808 | Hacker News Reader

Does anyone have a good source on what is going on in Ukraine skies? Given that long column of equipment sitting outside from Kiev Russia must own the skies around there. But the rest of the country I'm really not sure. I'm guessing the West is UA owned still.

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There’s a fair bit of talk (see Gen. Mark Hertling) that the column northwest of Kyiv is pretty FUBAR just with traffic jams and logistics, and so it doesn’t need a lot of attention at the moment. Ukrainian special forces have done a lot of damage at the head of the column, and I believe a bridge in the middle of/behind the column has been taken out, at least partially.

It seems like a big juicy opportunity tho, would be great to take out all of that armor, it might not be stuck forever. I think the problem is that there are a huge amount of sams guarding that column and it would be risky to make a run against it with the few aircraft they have left.

If it's got logistical problems, taking it out means Russia stops trying to resupply it and shifts effort elsewhere.

If you are positioned to do a good job continuing to interfere with the resupply, that might be a favor to Russia, even though it might feel good.

The optimistic takes are stronger than „temporarily stuck“. It’s basically „in a position where nothing can move forward or backward“. The road is blocked, the vehicles are out of fuel, with many wrecks in between. Food is running out and, soon, the crews will have to abandon their vehicles. It becomes a 40-mile long mass of scrap metal.

If this turns out to be true, it's probably going to be remembered as one of the biggest blunders in military history.

In post ww2 I can't think of any.

If an author like Tom Clancy wrote this as a plot line in a fictional novel, nobody would believe it as possible. What modern military would be this incompetent. The stories would surely be a false flag to pull an attack. But nope, here we are in real life.

In other words, the state of Russian security is literally nothing but threat of nuclear war. What are the odds those would be as poorly functioning as the rest of the forces?

This might be a dumb question but… where are all of those soldiers expected to sleep? In the vehicles and/or outside in the freezing cold? How does that work? The logistics of feeding, housing, and bathroom needs, etc. for 40 miles of people.

Basically just one giant Russian Burning Man Festival. Not too bad. Ever been camping?

Absent provisions or a ride home it sounds more like Fyre!

In the back of the trucks huddled together. I’m guessing they have cold weather sleeping bags.

And not sideways, off the road, because of the mud.

The Ukrainian air capabilities are attacking the supply line, like the fuel trains on the south. The long column of Russian vehicles outside of Kiev is stuck for several days because logistics. Without fuel it's not going to be anywhere. There're assessments that Russia will run out of supplies to run the war further by this Sunday. At the end the vehicles will likely be just captured.

> There're assessments that Russia will run out of supplies...

Any links to read?

Well, I have a tweet and a tweet thread anyway:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499872184382234636

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1499822066098655234

Thank you

There are always more. Here is vid of new reinforcements from up North: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499758843022258176?cxt=....

they are running not out of supplies but also out of equipment. somebody filmed a train full of whatever was state of art 40 years ago at Khabarovsk yesterday. it's 9000km away. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1499383504265785353

And with regards to supplies, yesterday, accidentally, due to electrical short in car (official version) blew up russian ammo depot in kursk region...https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1499761900959289347

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians are self sabotaging it. “Oh darn, the front fell off. Well, let’s turn ourselves in and get some hot food at least”

From some accounts I listened too their morale is quite low.

One theory is that Ukraine may be running out of armed drones and its small, outnumbered air force may be wary of being shot down by Russian air defence batteries.

Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggests the Ukrainians may well be safeguarding what resources they do have in readiness to counter-attack when the Russians get closer to Kyiv

> One theory is that Ukraine may be running out of armed drones

Unlikely to be the problem. Ukraine just received more Bayraktar drones from Turkey. And they'll receive more after that.

The skies are still contested according to UK's MoD today. Most of the Ukraine air force is still in tact according to the US today.

Right I found that quote on this page which looks a fair assessment from a few days ago.

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/air-war-over-ukraine-the-fi...

There's a huge advantage in Ukraine just having enough fighters to contest the skies, even if they don't actively use their planes; it keeps Russia from performing unprotected bombing runs.

Even without air, can they even do that given the number of Man-portable air-defense systems that Ukraine has?

Yes, they can fly higher. Or at night. Both scenarios where manpads are useless.

But then you risk getting hit by sams. And you're back at the article we're commenting.

You mean the Highway of Dumb? Apparently it's not even a priority right now.

Ghost of Kyiv is out there still killing off Russian fighters. They are too scared to hang around for long.

Ahh yes, the mythical Ghost of Kyiv that hasn't been confirmed by literally anything. It's basically twitter hearsay that people want to believe because it's a cool story.

Get outta here with that. OP asked for a good source. Not fairytales.

Myths are hugely effective in wartime. It's a phenomenon literally called a ghost and you're seriously saying 'but there's no proof???'

You cannot possibly be serious that by calling something a ghost you have an excuse to presenting any sort of evidence.

I believe someone form UKR gov 'validated' it, that said, it's probably mostly a myth though possibly maybe someone did do a few kills.

It's an ideal bit of propaganda to have though.

If the Ukranians pull through this, the 'Ghost of Kyiv' will be utterly mythologized. There will be movies, video games, statues, restaurants, brands of beer etc..

Can we speak facts? There's twitter and reddit for those discussions.

Propaganda measures are facts. This is one of the greatest propaganda bits in a very long time. Decades perhaps.

My thought is maybe afterwards we will find out that each and every UKR fighter pilot was the Ghost of Kyiv

In reality that is the case. They are all basically quasi suiciding when they go out.

They are straight up heroes.

I hope they bring the surviving winners to national capitols so they can have parade. They deserve 'Ending of Star Wars' kind of hero status.

Ghost of Kyiv fights a war in the Russian minds. Consider the legend of Juba, the Iraqi sniper who killed many US soldiers swiftly and suddenly. Hard to do anything out there without wondering if Juba has you in his sights. Similarly, you could be flying along on a routine Russian recon mission and without warning get blown away by the Ghost of Kyiv.

"Ghost of Kyiv" sounds like something out of a metal gear solid game

Ghost of Grozny Grad.

As much as I like the prospect of a heroic Ukrainian Fighter pilot ace, as far as I can see it seems that this is war propaganda.

Sources:

(1) https://www.gamingbible.co.uk/news/viral-footage-of-ghost-of...

(2) Google/YouTube etc

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