Hacker News Reader

Comment by pftburger | Hacker News Reader

Looking at the data, I am wondering why the invasion is triggered now, as reserves are about to start being refilled, instead of earlier. From the graph (https://agsi.gie.eu/#/graphs/DE) it seems like the storage starts being refilled as the weather warms near the end of march. IE Putin looses some bargaining power. What am I missing?

View on HN

Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. Minimal resistance was expected. The window of opportunity with this expectation is from mid-December until end of February. They picked a date with this plan.

They dont want kiev. That is too big and too hard to defend. They want the east and that is what they will ask during negotiations. Only in netflix war lasts four days. America needed 18 days to do some stuff in iraq

This is a popular misconception. They want all of Ukraine.

The east was just a part they could get control over in 2014. But their goal was always the whole country.

Says who?

By all conventional measures it's impossible for them to hold it. Why would we assume thats what theyre trying to do? It makes no sense.

Says Putin. Repeatedly since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Putin said that id you dont lament the fall of the soviet union you have no heart but if you want to rebuild it you have no brain.

I think he knows Ukraine is lost. He wants it broken so it becomes a strategic liability for the west rather than a military asset.

Putin just had the same ask since 2014 . He doesnt want nato weapons near his country. He will create a tampon zone using the east of ukraine. Just as a reminder think about what americans did to escape the cuba missiles

It makes no sense. But Putin wants...

> Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine.

This is being said a lot these days, but I haven't seen any proof of it. I'm not saying that proofs don't exist nor that it's wrong, just that I've been reading it everywhere, and haven't seen evidence. So I'd be happy if someone reading this could point out to some clues

To give an example where the expectations come from, note that when Russia annexed Crimea, they could retain some but not all, of the officers. Now when the Russian forces march in, they have common relatives that live in Ukraine, and some defect. The expectation of a ‘common big brother’ from Russia coming in and taking over government has been consistently shared by Russian officials. It is through the resistance of the invasion that desire for independence is shown.

It's been leaked from UK intelligence and yesterday Russian war plans were captured that said essentially the same thing:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/2/7327539/

Should I be worried that this publication is named, "pravda?"

No, I think it was kind of a joke to call it Pravda. The guy who started it ended up being decapitated and buried, likely by the government, for uncovering corruption.

Copied from another post: The view explicitly expressed by Russian planners in multiple sources signified that this is their expectation. Public announcements that Kiev will be taken in two weeks by Putin is the best source. Claims for the commonality of the three nations (Belorussian, Ukrainian and Russian) is what would cause this expectation. I am not saying it is rational to expect Kiev ti fall to several days. But I have to admit, Following the situation myself, I have had expected myself Ukraine to fold. I follow Easter European news closely, and I express personal analysis too.

Plus China said no war during the Olympics. Plus COVID for 2 years..... Plus the russian asset known as the Orange Moneky lost the ellections in the US.

The view explicitly expressed by Russian planners in multiple sources signified that this is their expectation. Public announcements that Kiev will be taken in two weeks by Putin is the best source. Claims for the commonality of the three nations (Belorussian, Ukrainian and Russian) is what would cause this expectation. I am not saying it is rational to expect Kiev ti fall to several days. But I have to admit, Following the situation myself, I have had expected myself Ukraine to fold. I follow Easter European news closely.

It's his turn for "They will greet us as liberators."

Reply on news.ycombinator.com