I'm not projecting my own experiences on others, I just take issue with your claim. Studying and working are very different beasts, I think it's very much possible for people to not finish degrees yet be really good employees that finish their tasks as agreed upon. The incentive structure is so different that the two can hardly be compared. Not finishing your degree, ignoring personal/financial issues, tells us nothing about their work performance.
> However, as we all know, spotting false negatives is very hard and who hires don't like these bets if not in very particular circumstances, as it is going to be their fault if the person is then not a false negative but a true one.
Yes that's hard but that's a very different issue from your original claim. It's a good reason for a recruiter to go for the person with the degree instead of the person without the degree, but that still doesn't mean that the person without the degree can't commit and finish their work.
> I think is no coincidence that as far as I can see the OP basically got the "finish your degree" as first and foremost comment.
He has 3-4 months left of a 5 year education, of course people will recommend him to finish his degree. There is very little opportunity cost downside.