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Comment by DoingIsLearning | Hacker News Reader

Can I ask, how are these economic restrictions affecting you in your daily life? Are people able to access money at their banks? Do you predict any future food security issues? Also in your opinion, what is the likely end game now for Putin?

Putin is unlikely to win this war, Ukraine have been given near unlimited anti-tank weapons by the EU/US, and have air superiority now with extra MiG's donated by NATO and TB2 drones from Turkey. Locals are set and prepared for guerrilla warfare. All the usual allies have distanced themselves from Russia. The writing is on the wall.

Is it likely that another oligarch will take his place? Is there any indication that top military might force his replacement? Is any of the economic suffering imposed now likely to force everyone to come out to the streets?

Edited: 'gorilla warfare'

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>gorilla warfare

Sorry for being that guy but even though gorilla warfare would be genuinely horrifying, the term is actually guerrilla warfare. Which funnily enough can be translated as "warfare warfare".

Edited to avoid distracting from the argument.

  > Can I ask, how are these economic restrictions affecting you in your daily life?

My company may soon be unable to receive revenue from western customers.

My company has two ongoing long-term projects (both took about 10 years), which now increasingly look like wasted time and money. If I'm cut off from my income source, I won't be able to retain key people, and will have to halt the development on both projects.

  > what is the likely end game now for Putin?

Endgame for Putin: Live safely in a bunker, for 10-15 more years, then die from natural causes, happy that he made (literally, _made_) history.

Endgame for Russia: after the death of Putin, in about 20 years from now we go the old tried-and-true route: crash, Perestroika, re-integration with the west -- but this time, we will be disarmed and de-fanged. Then we remain in that subdued state until the next drastic world-changing event (such as the advent of strong AI), and after that all bets are off.

I think people miss that the world is largely zero-sum and a subdued Russia is good for the status quo

Hope you and your loved ones stay safe, and that this russian epoch is a brief as possible.

Thank you. Given that from now on we are the most hated nation on the globe, this means a lot.

Actually I do think the majority of people understand that this is caused/lead mostly by Putin with the aid of handful of key russians. Most people in the world just want to get on with their lifes, keep their children safe and watch them grow.

I am not sure you are aware of this in Russian media, but most of the media shown in the west about Russian military, is of young conscripts who clear have no desire to be in the war, and claim they had no debriefing they would be deployed in Ukraine. The narrative (true or not) in western media is that Putin is using non-ethnic russians and young concripts as cannon fodder in the frontlines to wear off the ukrainian forces.

My point is that the general sentiment in the west is that the economic choke is necessary to avoid escalating NATO involvement (And nuclear threats). But in the west the sentiment is (for the majority) not antagonist to the Russian population itself .

NATO hasn't actually provided any replacement MiGs to Ukraine yet. Ukraine hasn't established air superiority. At best the airspace is still contested.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44501/reports-that-ukr...

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